In addition to Toyota and the electric car manufacturer Tesla, the German automobile manufacturers are among the sales winners in a declining global market in the past year 2019. While sales of the 19 most important global automobile manufacturers fell by 3.9 percent to 78.6 million vehicles, Volkswagen and BMW were able to Sales growth of 1.1 and 1.2 percent and Daimler of 0.7 percent. Toyota is up 1.5 percent, while Tesla, the smallest global manufacturer, is the relative sales winner with growth of 49.7 percent. These are the results of the Automotive Performance Report 2020 of the Center of Automotive Management, which regularly analyzes the market and financial figures of the global automotive groups.
After that, Volkswagen remains the top-selling group of automobile manufacturers with 10.7 million cars just ahead of Toyota with 10.6 million. General Motors and Hyundai (incl.Kia) came in third and fourth with 7.7 and 7.2 million units respectively. If you add together the automobile manufacturers Renault, Nissan and Mitsubishi, which are linked in an alliance, they come in third place with 10.2 million vehicles (-1.2 percent).
The overall balance 2019 shows a very heterogeneous development, in which some established automotive groups have to accept high market declines. The biggest sales losses include the American manufacturers Ford (-10 percent), FiatChrysler (-8.8 percent) and General Motors (-7.9 percent). The European PSA group (-10 percent) as well as the Japanese manufacturers Nissan (-8.9 percent) and Suzuki (-9.8 percent) also lose well above average.
For some manufacturers, sales collapse particularly sharply in the Chinese market, which is already declining: GM sales are down by 550,000 units (-15 percent), Ford sales are down by 24.5 percent, and PSA is even losing 55.5 percent of its car sales compared to 2018. PSA only sold 117,000 vehicles there after 736,000 in 2015. In contrast, German manufacturers in China were all still able to post gains in 2019, thereby further increasing their market share.
Global vehicle registrations fell massively in 2019 for the first time since the financial crisis of 2008/2009, with demand for automobiles already falling slightly in 2018 (-0.3 percent). In Germany alone, automobile production decreased by one million cars (-17 percent) between 2017 and 2019, while exports even fell by 21 percent in the same period. In addition to the manufacturers’ localization strategies, the main reason for the negative market development is the development tendencies of the world’s largest automobile market, China.
China has been the growth engine of the global automotive industry for more than 20 years. While the market volume in China was still 0.6 million cars in 2000, this rose to the provisional high of 24.7 million cars by 2017. In the wake of the trade conflicts with the USA and the relatively low economic growth, new registrations last year to just 21.5 million cars. Due to the current Corona crisis, further declines can be expected in the current year. Already in January, new registrations fell by more than 20 percent. CAM currently anticipates a further decline in the overall market in China of 5-10 percent for the full year 2020.
“Western car manufacturers have benefited massively from market growth in China since the turn of the millennium and achieved high market shares and profits. General Motors and Volkswagen will generate 40.1 and 39.5 percent of their worldwide sales in China in 2019. The Chinese share of sales at BMW and Daimler is 29 and 26 percent, respectively. However, this high market relevance is Janus-faced: In the event of market turbulence, it leads to a high level of vulnerability for companies. ”- Stefan Bratzel, director of studies at CAM
In view of market turmoil in China and a transforming automotive industry, a decline in global sales volume can also be expected in 2020. In addition to the temporary loss of the growth market China, the other important market regions USA and Europe are already on a high plateau of new registrations and show signs of saturation. In addition, the CO2 regulation and funding regimes in the EU will lead to a significant increase in the number of electric vehicle registrations this year. At the same time, however, the European vehicle market will be slightly below the high level of the previous year due to market uncertainties. Overall, the CAM expects a decline of 5 percent in 2020 for the global passenger car market.
“Against the backdrop of the major transformation topics of electromobility, connectivity, autonomous driving and mobility services, the global automotive industry is facing a turning point that will be accompanied by a major wave of consolidation in the next five to ten years. Few car manufacturers can still make the necessary investments in new technologies and business areas on their own. The current economic weakness in important market regions is increasing cost pressure and the trend towards consolidation. However, there is no ‘survival of the fattest’. Sales size alone will not ensure survival. Rather, the core competencies relevant to the future fields of battery, software and big data must be consistently developed and translated into new business models. ”- Stefan Bratzel, director of studies at CAM
Source: CAM – press release dated February 17, 2020
