Bernie Sanders arrives at the Texas primary as the favorite of the Texan Democrats. Since September, he has been able to double the support for his candidacy, driven by the support of Hispanics in the state, according to a new Univision News survey and the Center for Mexican-American Studies from the University of Houston.
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Although Sanders’ proposal for ‘Medicare for all’, which would provide universal access to health services, has great support among those consulted, the status of “socialist” that the senator uses to describe his political platform generates a lot of distrust in the state.
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26% of Texans registered to vote say they will support Sanders, compared with 13% who supported him in September, when Joe Biden led the intention to vote with 20%. The former vice president failed to gain ground and remains with the same percentage.
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Among Hispanics, the senator does even better: 31% say they will support it, almost twice as much as in September. This increase occurs after the departure of Texans aspiring to the Democratic nomination: Beto O’Rourke Y Julian Castro, who a few months ago gathered 19% and 12% support.
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Billionaire Bloomberg, who measure for the first time before the voters, is tied with Biden in second place in the intention to vote among the Texan Democrats. And it exceeds Biden (23% versus 19%) among Latinos in the state. The margin of error of the survey among Texan Democrats is +/- 4.3% and +/- 5.5% among Latino Democrats.
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30% of Texans eligible to vote in the state are Latino, according to the Pew Center. Therefore, if they appear at the polls, their support will be key to any candidate who wants to conquer Texas.
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In that sense, the Sanders campaign ensures that it has sought approach the Hispanic community since the beginning of this election cycle and the senator has appealed to his own immigrant roots to connect with Hispanics. In 2016, Hillary Clinton He conquered Texas comfortably, winning 65% support against Sanders, who won 33% of the votes.
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For Hispanics, however, one of the main attractions of the Sanders campaign is its health proposal. A 81% of Latinos in the state claim to be strongly in favor or something in favor of Medicare for Everyone, its platform’s banner program. Among Texans in general, 66% are very much in favor or something in favor. Texas is the been with the highest rate of people Without medical insurance, twice the country in general.
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Also, when the Univision News survey asked what aspects Hispanics most want the president and Congress to attend, reduce health costs is ranked first (35%), followed by improving wages (23%) and creating more jobs (18%).
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On the other hand, Sanders would find resistance among many Texans voters in general, and Latinos in particular, being associated with socialism. According to the survey, neither Latinos nor the general population of the state looks forward to a candidate being described as “socialist.”
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56% of voters in the state and 52% of Latinos say it is much less likely or somewhat less likely Voting for a candidate with that label. If the term used is “socialist democrat” – as Sanders himself describes – rejection remains among Texans in general (54%), but decreases eight points among Latinos (to 44%).
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Eight months after the presidential elections, Texas is presented as a divided state. Nearly half of Texans registered to vote (46%) say they will support the Democratic candidate for the presidency or are inclined to support him, while the other half (45%) say they will support President Donald Trump or lean for doing it.
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The percentage of support for Democrats in the state is similar to that found in a survey conducted in September, but unlike a few months ago, when Sanders took six points ahead of Trump, the new poll leaves the Democratic candidates in a virtual tie with the president (within the margin of error). Despite having added support, Sanders would get 45% of the vote, just like Trump, he found the new poll.
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Also, 52% of voters and 38% of Latinos in the state They claim to strongly or somewhat support the president’s performance.
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No Democrat has managed to prevail in Texas in 40 years, but Trump won in 2016 with a 9% advantage, the narrowest margin for a Republican presidential candidate in two decades.
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Methodology: On behalf of Univision Communications Inc., Latino Decisions conducted a state survey of Latinos registered to vote. In addition, an oversampling of Latinos registered to vote in the state was included. The survey was supervised by the director of surveys of Univision, Dr. Sergio García-Ríos. In total, 1,004 registered voters in Texas were consulted, including 504 Hispanics, by landline, cell phone and online questionnaires. All voters were randomly selected and given the opportunity to complete the survey in English or Spanish. After collecting the information in the field, post-stratification weights were applied to ensure that the final sample is aligned with the best estimates of registered voters of the Census CPS in Texas. Overall, 9% of the interviews were conducted in Spanish and 91% in English; Among Hispanics, the percentage was 24% in Spanish and 76% in English. The state survey has a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.1%. Among Hispanic voters the margin of error is +/- 4.4%. For Democrats in the state, the MOE is +/- 4.3% and of +/- 5.5% for Latino Democrats. The survey was conducted from February 21 to 26, 2020.
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