MILAN – After the Italian vote, with the massive success of the center-right coalition and the affirmation of the Brothers of Italy, lo spread between BTP and Bund Germans, a thermometer of the reliability that the markets attribute to Italy, expands to 236 basis points. Even more salt the ten-year yield tricolor, reaching 4.46% on the platform Bloomberg (maximum since 2013) and thus growing by over 10 basis points. It is a limited movement, but double compared to the widening of the other peripheral differentials, a sign that the country’s turn to the right does not leave the market indifferent. Observers, however, preach caution: Unicredit a “limited reaction on the markets in terms of spreads on BTPs in the short term, given that the result of the elections is broadly in line with the polls. We remain of the opinion that the spread remains around 250 basis points until the end of the year. we are waiting for President Mattarella to give the center-right the task of forming a new government and for Giorgia Meloni to be the candidate for premier “.
Different speech for Piazza Affari. The Milan stock exchange started quietly, then wore the pink jersey with an increase of more than a percentage point. Then he reduced the gears, while remaining well above the average of the others. Are the fears of recession and moves by central banks to fuel investor concerns. Among the currencies theEUR it collapses again and falls just above $ 0.96. It goes down there GBP: Fears about fiscal stability following the government’s massive tax cut push the British currency to an all-time low of 1.0384. The fall of Tokyoin the wake of the market debacle on Friday: the Nikkei in Tokyo closed a decline of 2.66%.
Weak EU stock exchanges, Milan strengthens again
The day of the European stock exchanges continues in the sign of volatility. Mid-session Milan returns to gain 0.8%, while the others are weak: London loses 0.8%, Frankfurt 0.05% and Paris 0.1%.
In a comment by Mfs Invest Management on the Italian elections, we read that “although a clash with the European Union is not imminent (Meloni has already softened his anti-EU tone during the election campaign), we still see risks for fiscal stability in the Meloni will have to make some concessions to his allies who have promised tax cuts (Lega) and pension increases (Forza Italia) and will have to face a difficult situation since the slowdown in growth and the need to provide some fiscal stimulus (as per manifesto of the coalition) will weaken the reconvergence of the Italian debt “.
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The Moscow Stock Exchange collapsed by 10%, at its lowest since the beginning of the war
The Moscow Stock Exchange collapses penalized by the prospect of an increased risk of further Western sanctions after the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. The Moex index leaves over 10% on the ground, slipping to the lowest level since the start of the offensive against Kiev.
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Volatile EU stock exchanges now turn red
The morning of the European stock exchanges continues in the sign of volatility. After gaining over a percentage point in the aftermath of political elections that they seem to decree the birth of a solid parliamentary majoritythe Ftse mib is back close to parity and now marks + 0.09%. The other continental indices are in red, with Frankfurt at -0.59%, Paris at -0.71%, Amsterdam at -0.46% and London at -0.69%. Investors continue to monitor for recession risks after Germany’s Ifo corporate sentiment index fell more than expected in September and face a sharply strengthening dollar.
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Piazza Affari loses altitude, returns to parity
The stock market slowed in the morning, with the Ftse Mib index which sees the rise reduced and now marks + 0.17% at 21,103 points. There remains the margin compared to the other European stock exchanges, which went negative. Investors are on the whole cautious, caught between the signs of an upcoming recession, which also affect the price of commodities, and the shocks of the currency market. The decline affects energy stocks, with Enel -2.5%, Eni -0.6%, Snam -0.6%, Terna -0.9%, Hera -1.1%. Tim remains positive with + 3.8%, Stm good (+ 1%), Moncler jump to + 3.3%. Well Nexi, Iveco, Ferrari, Cnh. In finance, managed savings are good, mixed with bankers.
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Milan still above + 1%, Tim highlighted
The Milan stock exchange continues up the session with the Ftse Mib rising by 1.09% to 21,297 points, in contrast to the other European stock exchanges on which fears of a recession weigh. Highlights Tim bouncing 7% and banks attracting buy orders. Finecobank rose by 4.93%, Banca Mediolanum by 3.3%, Nexi by 2.7%, Banca Generali by 2.97%. Moncler also on shields (+ 3.7%).
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Flat EU bags in mid-morning
Opening of the week so far relatively flat for the European stock exchanges. The Paris CAC gained 0.19% at 5,794.56 points, the German Dax advanced by 0.22% to 12,311.47 points. A positive sign also for the Ftse 100 in London, up by 0.04% to 7,020.35 points, while the Ibex in Madrid is negative, and at the moment leaves 0.44% on the ground at 7,550.28 points.
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The price of gas is down
Gas price down to 171 euros per megawatt hour right now at the Dutch reference hub in Amsterdam. The quotation on the Ttf registers a drop of 7.81% compared to the previous closing.
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Pound to low, Labor accuses Truss
Labor opposition in the UK blames the Liz Truss-led Conservative government for dropping the pound, to historic lows against the dollar, pointing the finger at massive tax cuts announced last week with the mini-maneuver and the promise to carry it out others despite the recession alarm in the country. According to Labor Shadow Treasury Minister Rachel Reeves, statements made yesterday by Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng of further tax cuts “have added fuel to the fire” by favoring the rapid loss of value in recent hours. And she added that the Tory executive is “betting” all the British money. While there are no comments from the government for what is happening on the markets, analysts are very concerned and there are those, like Capital Economics, who are calling for immediate intervention by the Bank of England with a substantial rise in interest rates.
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Elections, Janus Henderson: “Expected outcome, market looks to Pnrr”
The election result is what “the market expected and there may be a modest advantage in the nuances of the result. However, the market expects that even a right-wing government cannot afford to throw away the current Recovery plan and resilience which is at the basis of Italy’s access to substantial Next Generation EU funds, a hypothesis that could be tested in the coming days and with it the spread between the yields of Italian and German government bonds “. Janus Henderson, commenting on the outcome of the vote.
For the expert, the disappointment of the Lega is a reversal of the trend compared to “when the Lega was the most popular party in Italy according to polls, and in turn reduces the likelihood that Salvini and his politics are so dominant in defining the political tone as might have been expected. This is a relatively positive figure for the markets, given Salvini’s historically inflammatory rhetoric and, more pertinently, his recent calls for massive fiscal stimuli. “
The center-right wins but it’s Lega debacle: long faces, closed mouths and humor on the ground in Salvini’s party
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Confidence still declining for German companies, Ifo falls
Business confidence in Germany continues to decline. In September, the Ifo index stood at 84.3 compared to 88.6 in August. The decline is higher than the expectations of financial analysts who expected a drop in the Ifo to 87.
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Closing down on the Asian stock exchanges
Asian stock exchanges closed the first session of the week down, weighed down by Friday’s debacle on world financial markets in the face of more restrictive monetary policies and renewed fears of recession.
In Tokyo, the Nikkei lost 2.66% to 26,431.55 points after data showed that Japanese industrial activity fell to a 20-month low; the Topix dropped 2.71% to 1,864.28 points. The Chinese markets are also bad, with Shanghai losing 0.20% to 3,051.23 points and Shenzhen down 0.4% to 10,962.56 points. Hong Kong ends at -0.37% at 17.866.50 points.
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EU stock exchanges, Milan the best. The others moved little
The European stock exchanges, in the aftermath of the vote in Italy which sees the affirmation of the center-right, proceed volatile and around parity. Milan is confirmed as the best. In Frankfurt the Dax marks + 0.01% after the Ifo index which in September collapsed beyond expectations, to its lowest level since May 2020.
Even in Paris the Cac 40 is flat (+ 0.04%). In London, the FTSE 100 stood at -0.03%.
In Piazza Affari, the Ftse Mib index marks + 1.37% at 21,356 points, maintaining an advantage over other European stock exchanges which are also positive. Among the blue chips, Tim’s leap stands out with + 5.8%. financials did well, with banks led by Intesa (+ 2.7%), Bper and Bpm above 2%. Fineco rose by 4.2%, the other asset management securities also performed well. Energy stocks remain weak with Enel -0.8%, Eni -0.4%. Moncler did well at + 4.1%, Mfe rose 4.1% on news of the joint offer with Niel for the French broadcaster M6.
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Positive European exchanges
The day after the political elections in Italy, the main European stock exchanges open the first session of the seventh in positive territory. In Milan, Piazza Affari scores + 0.60% with the Ftse Mib at 21.194 points. London also opens up trading (+ 0.54%). Paris, although close to parity, marks + 0.04%. Only Frankfurt drops by 0.11%.
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Oil prices still falling
Oil prices are falling again, with investors reassessing their global demand outlook, while weaker prices have sparked speculation that OPEC + might consider intervening in crude markets again. The WTI loses 1.30% to 77.70 dollars a barrel, the Brent loses 0.65% to 84.91 dollars a barrel.
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Falling gas ads Amsterdam
Opening down for the price of gas, while fears for the war in Ukraine remain and the clouds of a global economic recession are gathering. In Amsterdam, prices drop to 183 euros per megawatt hour, with a decrease of 1.3%.
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