The mini-rebound at the start of the year
«As goes January, so goes the year». The old Wall Street adage that first-month stock performances match the trend for the whole year is putting investors in a good mood: 2023, in fact, opened with a mini-rally of the European stock exchangesup 10%, accompanied by a positive start in US equities, up 4%.
Is it the prelude to a consolatory year after the annus horribilis that has just ended? «This barometer has worked two times out of three in the last 30 years, but with some blunders, such as 2009 or 2018 (see table ed). Statistics can help, but it is never a certainty – concludes Salvatore Gaziano, investment director of SoldiExpert – especially in the short term». Some more robust ideas on the trajectory of the markets in the coming months can come from the best equity managers specialized in four areas — USA, Europe, Italy and China – to whom theCourier economy asked for enlightenment on the near future (see below). More than on numerology, in any case, it is better to think about numbers. For example, the one that measures the distance of the European stock exchanges (today very small, only 5 percentage points) from the historical record reached before the war. A figure that seems out of tune with the slowing economy. «However, two important changes that emerged at the turn of the year should be remembered: the rise in estimates of Chinese growth, after the abandonment of the zero Covid policy, and the drastic drop in natural gas prices in Europe: The combined effect is higher growth and lower inflation, a very positive mix for risky assets. This is not a technical rebound, but a movement supported by the evolution of the macro picture», says Marco Mossetti, Credit Suisse asset management strategist.
© Reproduction reserved
