Sova Harris: GERB-SDS (25.9%), PP+DB (24.6%), BSP is fifth (7.8%), the Left – 4.1% and Yanev – 3.9% – 2024-02-21 03:30:44

/ world today news/ The data are from a survey representative of the adult population of the country, conducted by SOVA HARIS in the period March 18-24, 2023, among 1,000 Bulgarian citizens using the method of the standardized face-to-face interview in the respondent’s home. Maximum error for 50% relative proportion at 95% guaranteed probability: 3.1%. The research was commissioned by “PIK BROADCASTING” AD.

When trust in a political force exceeds the degree of willingness to vote for it, we say that that party has an atmosphere, that is, it has an opportunity to increase its electoral support. In the current research, we register that the parties that receive the highest trust are the two most significant political forces in our country: GERB (19.3%) and Continuing the Change (17.5%). We should note, however, that trust almost coincides with willingness to vote for them. Their atmosphere has shrunk to a solid core of voters. If political entities with a similar profile are available, it is possible for trust to be transferred from voters whose first choice is another formation. For example, the conclusion of a pre-election coalition between PP and DB leads to voters of one formation expressing confidence in the other as well. When predicting the election result, we must take this effect into account. The results of the research show that parties in the second tier according to electoral support have a greater opportunity to attract new votes. DB (14.5%), Bulgarian Vozhod (13.9%) and Vazrazhdane (13.0%) received trust exceeding the share of those who voted for them. There is probably a trust spillover effect between the BSP (11.8%) and the “Left!” (9.6%). There is also potential for growth in left-leaning formations. Confidence in VMRO (7.8%) shows that their supporters have not yet forgotten them, but that the party has lost relevance in the specific situation. The “Together” coalition (4.2%) is establishing itself among the pretentious urban environment, which is a guarantee of a positive trend in the future, but it is still unknown among the wider population. The restart of the NDSV (2.1%) is almost imperceptible so far.

The results of the research show that we should not expect an influx of voters as a result of the election campaign. 42.4% of all voters say that they will definitely vote in the upcoming parliamentary elections on April 2. This means that between 2.7 and 2.8 million people are expected to go to the polls. According to the applications made, the GERB-SDS coalition is expected to receive the most support – 25.9% of the actual votes. It is followed by the PP-DB coalition with a close result of 24.6%. This result does not reach the sum of the votes cast separately for the two parties in the last parliamentary elections. A contested fight for the third place between DPS (12.8%) and Vazrazhdane (12.6%) is looming. For the BSP with 7.8%, we can say that it will certainly enter the next parliament, but in the uncomfortable fifth place for the until recently leading formation. The registered results show that the «Left!» (4.1%) is about to cross the electoral barrier. “Bulgarian Rise” (3.9%) is quite close to this possibility. So far, the trend of both formations is emerging as positive. According to the research, this is not the case with “There is such a people” (2.9%). Whether due to unfulfilled expectations or the separation of leading experts from this party into a new political entity, the trend with them is in a negative direction. Probably at the expense of this, the “Together” coalition notes a presence that, although it is far from the barrier to entering the parliament, receives trust that exceeds 4 percent.

In the course of the campaign, the motives underlying the formation of political support from voters become clear. According to public opinion, the most serious problem facing the country at the moment is inflation. In second place are the high prices and the speculation surrounding them. In third place, the management of the country in the conditions of the political crisis is indicated. Corruption is also assessed as a significant problem. Attitudes toward the war in Ukraine loomed large in the background, while issues in health care and the justice system were placed in the background.

Only 20% of the voters believe that after the parliamentary elections on 04/02/23, a stable government will emerge that will lead us through the crisis. Those who are of the opinion that the tangled knot of the Bulgarian political scene will not unravel with these elections are almost three times as many – 57.7%. The lack of optimism can also explain the low interest in political processes.

On the issue of arms exports from Bulgaria to Ukraine, public opinion is even more categorical: 17.8% are “for”, while 65.8% are against. We must note that on this matter the political line of the President follows the attitudes of the majority of the Bulgarian society. This is also confirmed by the answers to the question “How should relations between Bulgaria and Russia be regulated in the more distant future?”. The final positions are advocated by two almost equal shares – Bulgaria to keep as far away as possible (22.5%) versus Bulgaria declaring against the sanctions (19.3%). Preves (43.0%) receives the moderate position, according to which Bulgaria should respect the sanctions as a loyal partner, but also maintain relations as a close neighbor in the region.

The controversies surrounding the adoption of the amendments to the Electoral Code shook voters’ confidence in the correctness of the electoral process. However, the majority of people – 48.8% – expect that the caretaker government will provide conditions for holding fair and democratic elections. The skeptical with 22.9%. We can hope that the election administration will be above the political prostrations this time and will once again do its job well.

Vasil Tonchev

1. DO YOU TRUST THE FOLLOWING POLITICAL PARTIES? (%)

2. HOW CONFIDENT ARE YOU THAT YOU WILL VOTE IN THE UPCOMING PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS ON 02.04.23?

3. IF EARLY ELECTIONS TO PARLIAMENT WERE HELD THIS WEEK AND THE FOLLOWING PARTIES OR COALITIONS APPEARED, WHICH OF THEM WOULD YOU VOTE FOR?

(actual votes)

4. WHAT DO YOU THINK IS THE MOST SERIOUS PROBLEM FACING THE COUNTRY AT THE MOMENT?

5. DO YOU THINK THAT THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS WILL EMIT A STABLE GOVERNANCE THAT WILL TAKE US THROUGH THE CRISIS?

6. DO YOU THINK BULGARIA SHOULD EXPORT WEAPONS TO UKRAINE?

7. HOW DO YOU THINK RELATIONS BETWEEN BULGARIA AND RUSSIA SHOULD BE REGULATED IN THE FUTURE?

8. IN YOUR OPINION, WILL THE CAREGIVING GOVERNMENT PROVIDE CONDITIONS FOR THE CONDUCT OF FAIR AND DEMOCRATIC PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS ON 02.04.2023?

Vote with ballot No. 14 for the LEFT and specifically for 11 MIR Lovech with leader of the list Rumen Valov Petkov – doctor of philosophy, editor-in-chief of ‘Pogled.Info’ and in 25 MIR-Sofia with preferential No. 105. Tell your friends in Lovech and Sofia who to support!?

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