More than fifty percent of the infections in South Africa now concern the subtypes. BA.4 and BA.5 thus seem to dominate. Still, percentages can give a distorted picture, says Preiser. “Because with our research we now zoom in on hot spots and certain densely populated parts of the country. So it is not necessarily representative of the whole of South Africa.”
Mapping
Zoom in and quickly share information. That is what the scientists in South Africa do all the time. Professor Preiser and virologist De Oliveira are part of a network of research organisations, laboratories and universities in South Africa that are mapping and monitoring variants. The country was the first to pick up the beta variant and therefore also omikron.
Preiser: “We have less test capacity than Western countries, but if we see something that differs, our network quickly shares the test results and we will see if we can pick up those deviations elsewhere.”
Scientists in South Africa are now also trying to map how these subtypes spread, whether they are more contagious and pathogenic and whether existing vaccines work well. It is still very early and much is speculation. But the subtypes seem slightly more contagious and there is early evidence that even if you have antibodies, through a previous infection or vaccination, you can still get the subtype.
Low vaccination rate
“The initial studies indicate that the subtypes are more likely to evade the immune system,” says Preiser. It remains to be seen what this means for South Africa. In South Africa, the vaccination rate is very low: at 31 percent. However, many South Africans, according to studies no less than eighty percent, have already had corona and built up antibodies in this way.
The subtypes do not seem any more sickening than the original omikron for the time being. No new symptoms are observed. However, the number of hospital admissions is increasing. “More infections always translate into more hospitalizations and more deaths, but that doesn’t mean you get more seriously ill,” says Preiser.
big blow
“Don’t panic,” writes virologist De Oliveira about BA.4 and BA.5 on Twitter. His news about omikron in November caused many countries to close the door to South Africa. That was a major blow to tourism. The scientists felt the country was being punished for their high-quality research.
So the virologists now emphasize that they don’t know a lot yet. And it doesn’t have to turn out badly. Preiser hopes that this new development with subtypes may be the ‘beginning of the future’. “It may be that omikron always stays with us and changes so that it can infect us again. That could mean that we have to keep boosting and adapting the vaccine. I still have some hope that we are moving towards an endemic virus that will kill us.” sick for a few days and is not seriously ill.”
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