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Son Heung-min, 2% probability broke… ‘Phantom Goal’ analyzed with big data

Tottenham Son Heung-min’s tribute to the Arsenal’s Wonder Goal continues. A soccer statistics company analyzed that Son Heung-min’s goal had a 2% chance of success.

This is Ha Seong-ryong.

Sohn Heung-min’s medium-range cannon, which was wound diagonally at a distance of 24 yards and 22 meters from the goal line, was statistically surprising.

As a result of analyzing various indicators such as shooting distance and angle with big data by soccer statistics company’Under Stat’, the probability that Son Heung-min’s shooting will score, that is, the goal expected value, was 0.02.

On average, if you kick 100 times, you have a finely crafted 2% sparse probability of entering 2 times.

It was a super-difficulty goal with the lowest chance of success out of 10 league goals scored this season.

[손흥민/토트넘 공격수 : 제가 만약 운이 좋았다고 하면 사람들이 아니라고 하겠죠. 운이 따른 골이지만 정말 아름다웠습니다.]

[무리뉴/토트넘 감독 : 정말 ‘미친 골’이네요.]

[시소코/토트넘 미드필더 : 믿을 수 없는 놀라운 골입니다.]

Statistics also reveals Son Heung-min’s tremendous goal determination.

If you add up the probability of success for each shot taken in 11 matches, that is, the expected goal value, all of them are 3.88 goals, but in reality, 10 goals were more than 2.5 times.

Among the top 10 players to score in the league, they are showing the best goal-determining ability by running overwhelmingly at the top of the difference between actual goals and expectations.

The number also tells the reason why Son Heung-min, who shakes the net with a low probability of success, produces various’Wonder Goals’.

(Video editing: Kim Byung-jik)

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