Mental arithmetic. At the average rate of 544,000 job creations per month since 1is January, how long will it take for the American economy to fill the deficit of the order of 8 million positions compared to the pre-pandemic situation? Even if you have the answer to this question, there is no guarantee that it will ultimately be true. Why ? Because after more than a year of crisis and teleworking, the relation to wage activity has changed. The record rate of resignations bears witness to this. In the very short term, there is a fairly rational reluctance not to return to the labor market. Some of the emergency aid and unemployment benefits created during the crisis are still in force in more than half of the states and will remain so until July or September, depending on the case.
Companies, like McDonald’s, have publicly admitted to having difficulty recruiting. To attract candidates, the fast food giant has also decided to offer a “hiring bonus”. These difficulties are reflected in the data on hourly wages. In June, it rose 3.6% year on year, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) figures released Friday, July 2. This indicator is in line with expectations. It is at the bottom of the ladder, where jobs are least rewarding, that the tensions seem greatest. ” Microeconomically, there are worrying signals, says Christophe Donay, Head of Strategy and Asset Allocation at Pictet Wealth Management. Macroeconomically, there is no signal of rising wages ”.
Reopening of schools
In terms of hiring, the United States created 850,000 non-farm jobs in June, or 130,000 more than expected by consensus (720,000). ” Notable job gains were recorded in the leisure and hospitality sectors, public and private education [ou encore] retail “, Notes the BLS. With the reopening of schools, employment increased by nearly 270,000 in June in education (private and public at local and federal level). ” Leisure and hospitality employment increased by 343,000 as restrictions linked to the pandemic continued to ease in parts of the country Adds the Bureau.
« This figure is still a little disappointing as spending in bars and restaurants has already rebounded to levels much closer to those before the pandemic ”, said Andrew Hunter, senior US economist at Capital Economics. ” Some of the temporary labor shortages that are holding back employment recovery are starting to ease, however, with the labor force only increasing by 151,000 people and still being more than three million below its pre-peak. -pandemic, we are not entirely convinced that this is the start of a much stronger trend ”, he adds.
The slight increase in the unemployment rate, to 5.9%, against a drop to 5.6% expected, is not to please either. In addition, the turnout remained low at 61.7%, down from 61.6% in May and 65% on average for two decades. ” More generally, our analysis suggests that recent labor shortages were also caused by more fundamental factors, which are expected to prove to be much more lasting. », Concludes Andrew Hunter.
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