Disclaimer
The material is published for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation. ForkLog is not responsible for the investment decisions of readers.
Delphi Digital co-founder and head of research Kevin Kelly saw signs of an early bull rally in the current digital asset market.
According to Kelly, the standard cryptocycle begins when Bitcoin hits an all-time high followed by an 80% drawdown.
After about two years, it recovers to its previous ATH and continues to rise to the new one. This sequence lasts approximately four years.
Crypto market cycles. Data: Delphi Research.
Kelly believes that this pattern is not random, but consistent with the “broader business cycle.” He noticed that Bitcoin’s price peak often coincides with the ISM Manufacturing Index.
Comparison of BTC quotes and ISM index. Data: Delphi Research.
According to the Delphi co-founder’s analysis, ISM is already in the final stages of a downtrend. The current situation reminds him of the market of 2015-2017.
Kelly noted that the last two halvings in the network of the first cryptocurrency occurred approximately 18 months after the asset hit the bottom, and seven months before it hit an all-time high.
The next block reward halving is expected in April 2024. The expert believes that after about six months, digital gold will be able to reach ATH.
According to a survey by blogger PlanB, 60% of respondents believe in the beginning of a bull market after the halving.
Despite the positive forecast, Kelly warned that there is no guarantee that such a scenario will develop. He also suggested the possibility of a “false bottom”.
“In fact, this is the time when we can see another modest sell-off or period of price consolidation, especially after the strong rally that we have seen over the past 9 months (similar to the second half of 2019),” he said.
Recall that Glassnode analysts noted the stage of extreme apathy in the bitcoin market. In support of their words, the experts pointed to the reduction in the spread of Bollinger bands to 2.9%.
The 30-day volatility of bitcoin on an annualized basis has dropped to 15.5% – the lowest value in history.
Subscribe to ForkLog on social networks
Found a mistake in the text? Select it and press CTRL+ENTER
ForkLog Newsletters: Keep your finger on the pulse of the bitcoin industry!
2023-08-15 15:03:05
#Delphi #Digital #Predicted #Bitcoin #High
