should we fear a second wave with the drop in temperatures?

THE ESSENTIAL

• The number of Covid-19 contaminations has grown exponentially in France since mid-July, but this phenomenon has not resulted in an increase in hospitalizations. The second wave is not here.
• However, doctors are worried about the upcoming drop in temperature. With cold, the body is more vulnerable to viruses.
• In addition, we have more tendency to group together and to ventilate our space less. This behavior is conducive to the proliferation of viruses and probably Covid-19.

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The end of summer also marks the retreat of sunny days and our collective recklessness. As of the start of the 2020 school year, all of Public Health France’s health indicators are deteriorating. Thus, during the week of August 17 to 23, 26,890 positive cases of Covid-19 were identified, an increase of 57% compared to the previous week. A dizzying figure if we compare it to mid-July when between July 13 and July 19, Public Health France had counted 4,446 weekly cases, or 6 times less than in mid-August.

An “exponential” progression of the virus which worries the epidemiologists of Public Health France. However, it is still too early to speak of a second epidemic wave. A wave is the rapid acceleration to an “epidemic peak”. We are not there yet. As the program Désintox points out, a study by the Institut Pasteur, published last July, estimates that the virus had an effective reproduction rate close to 3 in mid-March, that is to say that a person affected of the virus infected an average of 3 others. In mid-August, it is estimated to be around 1.38.

While the number of confirmed cases and the proportion of symptomatic cases have increased sharply, hospitalizations and resuscitation cases are also progressing, but moderately. As of August 25, 4,600 people were hospitalized for Covid-19, including 410 in intensive care. Figures higher than in early August but equivalent to those recorded in early June at the very end of the first wave.

The danger of falling temperatures

If a second wave therefore does not yet seem relevant despite a deterioration in the health situation, many doctors are worried about the onset of winter. “On does not know how the virus will react to the drastic drop in temperatures, explains Professor Denis Malvy infectious disease specialist at Bordeaux University Hospital and member of the Scientific Council in the pages of 20Minutes. If the Covid-19 is like other viruses, it will benefit from an even more favorable ground to spread.”

However, the main reason that epidemiologists fear an upsurge in Covid-19 from the first drops in temperature is that we are going to change our way of life at that time. On August 22, Professor Antoine Flahault, director of the Institute for Global Health, said in the columns of the World : “the Australian case [NDLR : où après un confinement en mars-avril le pays a subit une deuxième vague fin mai] shows that a second wave can occur during winter, when people are more confined to less ventilated places. It seems then that contamination is facilitated and that an epidemic outbreak is more easily triggered.“

The French Academy of Medicine encourages everyone, especially children, to get the seasonal flu shot. An opinion shared by the Haute Autorité de santé. This vaccine does not offer protection against Covid-19 but makes it possible to unclog emergencies and limit the number of suspected cases requiring a PCR test. The best protection against Covid-19 remains for the World Health Organization (WHO) by maintaining social distances, the use of barrier gestures and regular hand washing.

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