While some doubt the relevance of the measures put in place to slow the progression of the coronavirus in the absence of a vaccine (social distancing, wearing a mask, frequent hand washing), it only takes a step back in time to see the effectiveness of these simple means.
An international group of researchers has published a study in Science Advances, in which they used mathematical models to reconstruct the course of a major typhus epidemic in the Warsaw Ghetto during World War II.
Up to 450,000 people were estimated to live in inhumane conditions in the ghetto, which stretched for just 3.4 km.2. “With deplorable living conditions, rampant famine and a population density 5 to 10 times that of any city in the world today, the Warsaw ghetto was fertile ground for the spread of typhus. The disease wiped out the mostly Jewish population like a bushfire. Of course, the Nazis at the time were aware that this was going to happen, ”said Professor Lewi Stone, mathematician and principal investigator of this study.
As early as 1940, this camp was “sealed” by an enclosure 3 m high and barbed wire. In the spring of 1941, after 66,000 forcibly displaced refugees arrived in the ghetto, typhus, a bacterial disease transmitted by lice, began to spread.
Officially, 20,160 cases of typhus have been reported in total, after the two waves of the epidemic. The estimates of epidemiologists at the time suggest that there would have been 80,000 to 110,000 cases, and that 25,000 of them would have died. The large underestimation would be due in particular to the fact that sick people tended not to report their illness for fear of reprisals.
A miracle?
By delving into historical documents, examining the use of ration cards, and resorting to mathematical modeling, the researchers assessed the dynamics of the epidemic on a month-to-month basis. They noticed that the spread of typhus had drastically decreased by 40% in October 1941 in the ghetto, while this type of infection usually increases during the winter. This sort of scientific anomaly, which was seen as a “miracle”, rather reflects the positive effect of the behaviors put in place.
“Fortunately, many anti-epidemic activities and interventions are documented and it turns out that the Warsaw ghetto had several experienced doctors and specialists,” Lewi Stone said in a press release. He found, in archives, traces of training and lectures given to the population on hygiene and infectious diseases.
The researchers note that apartment cleanliness was encouraged and sometimes enforced at this time. Home quarantine and self-isolation were also in effect, and social distancing was seen as common sense, where possible. According to them, these hygiene and isolation measures explain this marked drop in the infection curve.
Researchers see similarities between this time and the current COVID-19 pandemic. While today’s society understands how much harm a single bacteria or virus can cause, “the actions of individuals who practice hygiene, social distancing and self-isolation when ill can make a huge difference in the community to reduce the spread ”.
Painting by Israel Bernbaum, 1981. Credit: permanent collection of Montclair State University, MSU 2011.003.002.
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