“A recognition of the special courage of the opposition, which has now been holding on for weeks,” says Bob Deen about the award of the Sakharov Prize today to the opposition parties in Belarus. He is coordinator of the Russia and Eastern Europe Center at the Institute of International Relations Clingendael.
According to him, the European Parliament prize for defenders of democracy and human rights has a justified winner. “The demonstrations are just not translated into concessions from President Lukashenko.”
Last weekend, in Minsk and elsewhere in the country, demonstrations took place for the tenth week in a row against Lukashenko and his re-election in August. The fact that the elections have been messed about seems to be certain. The EU countries therefore do not recognize the election results. Now, after more than ten weeks of protests, violence and thousands of arrests, little seems to have changed.
“The situation is not threatening enough for Lukashenko,” says Deen. “He has been sworn in and pretends nothing is wrong. He also has the support of the security forces and the military. The demonstrations are admirable and brave, but not enough to take power.”
NOS correspondent David Jan Godfroid also sees little change. “What you can conclude is that a significant part of the Belarusian population has shaken off fear. That is already a huge change. The opposition had hoped that the police, the army and the security forces would join them. did not happen. As long as that is the case, Lukashenko will remain seated. “
Ultimatum
Opposition leader Svetlana Tichanovskaya claimed the election victory in August and had to swiftly flee. She now resides in Lithuania and is trying to rally support outside Belarus.
Tikhanovskaya suggested Lukashenko last week an ultimatum. If he hasn’t left next Sunday, the whole country will take to the streets, she said. She also demands that all political prisoners be released on that date.
But Deen finds it difficult to estimate the significance of the ultimatum. “The opposition has less influence because it is abroad. Moreover, the previous strikes came to an end when there were threats that everyone who took part would lose their job.”
Geopolitical charge
Lukashenko needs the support of Russia to stay in power. “If Russia drops Lukashenko, he will be over immediately,” Godfroid said. “But they think he is the best guarantee of stability at the moment. Putin wants to avoid losing Belarus.”
Russia also does not want to support the protests, says Deen. “Russia does not want a bottom-up change of power, because in that way you could also dismiss the president in Russia. Furthermore, the Kremlin wants to prevent Belarus from turning to the EU or, worse, NATO.”
Still, Russia will not hold on to Lukashenko at all costs, Deen suspects. “Putin realizes that the more rigidly he sticks to Lukashenko, the more he will lose the support of the Belarusian population. While they are predominantly pro-Russian.”
The demonstrations in Belarus were not initially about the difficult relationship between the West and Russia. But that is slowly changing, says Deen. “The fact that Putin supports Lukashenko and the EU supports the opposition, gives it a geopolitical charge. Now the European Parliament, which is often very critical of Russia, is taking it a step further with the Sakharov Prize.”
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