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Vladimir Putin PHOTO: Reuters
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China cannot turn a blind eye to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Beijing is forced to intervene – as a mediator in the conflict. Because the People’s Republic also suffers from the consequences. And it can get worse.
“Fake news,” China’s foreign ministry said, according to US media reports that Russia had asked Beijing to supply it with weapons for the war in Ukraine. The publications appeared on the eve of a meeting between representatives of Washington and Beijing, who met in Rome on Monday to discuss the situation in Ukraine. Thus, the media increased the pressure on China to take on the role of mediator in ending the war started by Putin, writes Deutsche Welle.
The facts show that Beijing really has a huge interest in ending the war quickly. Because the economic consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine quickly fell on the People’s Republic of China: it imports large quantities of grain from both Ukraine and Russia. As a result of the war, prices in China have skyrocketed so much that Chinese President Xi Jinping has had to take action personally, promising that Beijing will continue to gain independence from foreign imports. A goal that the communist government in China has actually set for itself a long time ago. Because the import of vital goods and products contradicts Beijing’s nationalist domestic policy. Added to this is the fact that a number of countries, including the United States and Japan, have already begun to limit their ties to the Chinese economy in order to reduce their dependence on the Beijing dictatorship.
Risk of outbreaks of hunger riots
In the Xi Empire, 82 million Chinese still live on one dollar a day. A jump in prices like the current one could turn their dramatic situation into a dead end. Yes, the leadership in Beijing has repeatedly solemnly declared that extreme poverty in China has been defeated. However, according to a World Bank study, China has recorded amounts of daily subsistence in its accounts that are much lower than standard. This means that real poverty in China is clearly much higher than official figures.
Memories of periods of famine in China are still fresh. Under the leadership of Mao Zedong, whom he tried to emulate, the country experienced a catastrophic famine in 1959-1961. Mao’s economic ideology led to such a crisis that nearly 76 million people died of starvation at the time.
Xi Jinping intends to be elected lifelong General Secretary of the CCP at the upcoming party congress in November. In fact, in order to avoid future dictatorial atrocities, such as those of the Mao era, China decided after the 1980s to limit the most important leadership positions to two five-year terms. However, with regard to the presidency, this restriction has already been removed from the Constitution. So Xi can now run the country just like Mao.
The outbreak of hunger riots is one of the few scenarios that could prevent the future coronation of Xi. The German magazine SPIEGEL recently published its own investigation, according to which the Chinese leadership put pressure on the UN to stop the release of a report on the famine in China as a result of the war in Ukraine.
The world will look critically at a mediator like China
Until recently, the Chinese leader boasted about his friendship with Putin and talked about future close cooperation in Russia in such key areas as astronautics and Internet control. Recently, Beijing has again claimed that Russia remains “China’s most important strategic partner”.
Due to all this, the world community is constantly increasing the pressure on Beijing by insisting on influencing Moscow. But Beijing does not seem to have much desire to appear on the big international stage, because that would draw attention to the many human rights violations committed by its ruler – and especially to the genocide against the Uighurs. In addition, the world would be very critical of a mediator like China, which has repeatedly threatened to annex the free and democratic country of Taiwan. That is why, from the very beginning of the Russian invasion, China has been trying to find the square of the circle: Beijing not only condemns Russia’s war in Ukraine, but also calls on both sides to hold talks. The People’s Republic does not participate in Western sanctions against Russia, but does not provide economic assistance to Moscow. The refusal to provide military assistance to Russia fits into the same pattern of behavior, which in fact should not even be mentioned in China. Instead, authorities say Russia has never made such a request.
Prices and poverty will rise
Imports of grain from Russia and Ukraine cover about 10% of China’s needs, the Wall Street Journal reported. But the war also affected the production of fertilizers, sunflower oil and soybeans, products that China also imports from abroad. Chinese farmers urgently need soybeans for fodder. Therefore, it is expected that meat prices in the country will jump.
In China they like to say: ????. It literally means “lots of fish, lots of meat.” The message is this: to be delicious, there must be a lot of both on the table. Whoever can invite guests to such a table receives respect and admiration. But if the war of aggression, which China has not yet condemned, continues, China’s tables will be impoverished, and Xi’s dreams of unlimited, lifelong power may not come true.
That is why China is forced to act. He has no choice: he must mediate the conflict, because otherwise China itself will begin to feel the effects of the war even more. Let’s not forget this: the Chinese leader and his allies do not want a clash with the United States in any way. Because the People’s Republic will certainly lose a war against the United States in which Moscow would get involved.
* Alexander Görlach is a Senior Research Fellow at the Carnegie International Council on Ethics and a Lead Researcher at the Institute of Religion and International Studies at the University of Cambridge. He has taught in Taiwan and Hong Kong.
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