The Russia-Ukraine war has entered 2024, and this New Year is not peaceful for many people in both countries.
Earlier, military experts generally believed that Russia was accumulating cruise missile stocks for large-scale attacks on the rear of Ukraine in winter. However, unlike Russia in October 2022, when Russia began large-scale bombing of civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, in 2023, the Russian military did not begin until the end of December in retaliation for the sinking of the large landing ship “Novocherkassk” by the Ukrainian army. Similar actions.
On the night of December 29, according to data from the Ukrainian Air Force, the Russian army launched 122 missiles and dozens of suicide drones into Ukraine. A Ukrainian Air Force official called it the largest air strike since the war began. Several of Ukraine’s largest cities—Kiev, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Lviv, Odessa, and Zaporozhye—were all attacked, and residential buildings, administrative buildings, shopping malls, and even maternity hospitals were damaged. A large number of pictures were circulated.
In addition, the Kiev “Artyom” factory that produces military products was also affected.heavy damage.There was even a Russian missile during the airstrikego deep40 kilometers of Polish territory and lasted for 3 minutes, causing protests from Poland. According to statistics from the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, this round of attacks resulted in a total of 53 deaths and 170 injuries among Ukrainian civilians.
Vasili Nebenzia, Permanent Representative of Russia to the United NationsclaimRussia only attacks military targets. “If it were not for Ukraine’s air defense operations, there would be no civilian casualties at all.”
On December 30, Belgorod, the capital city of Russia, came under Ukrainian artillery fire. The Russian Defense Ministry stated that Ukraine launched several Czech-aided “Vampire” rockets and self-produced “Vilkha” rockets with cluster warheads in an “indiscriminate attack” on the city. Although the rockets were intercepted, But debris and cluster parts fell across the city center, which was crowded with people over the New Year’s Eve weekend. Pictures and videos from the scene showed thick smoke billowing over the city, broken glass in buildings, burning vehicles on the streets, and many people lying on the sidewalk with seemingly no signs of life. The attack killed 25 people, including five children, and injured 110 others.
This attack is very different from most of the past attacks by the Ukrainian army on targets in Russia. Previous attacks were often carried out late at night. The Ukrainian army’s “Beaver” drone was even speculated to have instructions to explode only after hitting a designated target to avoid hurting innocent people as much as possible. The Russians also seemed to take Ukraine’s tolerance and restraint into account. As it should be.The Russian authorities have always downplayed the threat and deliberately created an illusion that life is normal. Therefore, in Belgorod, which is only more than 30 kilometers away from the border, large-scale outdoor gatherings are still being held, and air defense sirens are attacking.30 minutes after occurrenceThe sound was fired, and according to some reports, all local air raid shelters were locked. Many citizens had no emergency knowledge and took pictures of the explosion from their windows, resulting in injuries. (Extended reading: “Travel in Russia: In a society at war, how can we pretend that the war did not happen?”)
This can also explain why Ukraine’s attack used far fewer weapons than Russia’s bombing, and the scale of damage to infrastructure was far less tragic than Russia’s air strike, but the casualties caused were no less than Russia’s attack the day before.
Although Ukrainian officials, as always, have not expressed their position on similar incidents, some anonymous intelligence officials immediately revealed to the media that the shelling was in retaliation for Russia’s large-scale bombing the day before, and that the Ukrainian army targetedmilitary objectivescivilian casualties were caused by Russian air defense forces“Unprofessional” and “deliberately provocative”cause.
Many pro-Ukrainian military bloggers even questioned the version provided by Russia, believing that the damage was mainly caused by Russian anti-aircraft missiles, or even a “false flag” operation directed and performed by Russia. However, some analysts with a more fair stance (such asconflict intelligence team、Medusa、Jan Matveyov) After comprehensively considering various evidences, they tend to believe that the Ukrainian army did use cluster munitions against densely populated areas in the city center.
If this judgment is true, it may mean that the Ukrainian army’s revenge attack had the intention of killing and injuring civilians. (Extended reading: “The First Anniversary of the Russo-Ukrainian War | A mobilization order made them determined to leave Russia”)
That night, the Russian army launched a counter-retaliation for Ukraine’s retaliatory attack, launching several S-300 anti-aircraft missiles from Belgorod to the neighboring Ukraine’s second largest city, Kharkiv, injuring at least 28 people and damaging residential buildings and buildings. Shops and medical facilities were damaged.Frequented by foreign journalistsKharkiv Palace Hotelwas also attacked, and at least one foreign journalist was injured.
On the night of December 31, the Russian army launched “record number of“The suicide drone launched various missiles towards areas adjacent to the front line. Although the Ukrainian Air Force claimed to have shot down 87 of the 90 drones, one person was still killed, and the 20th-century Ukrainian nationalist leader Roman Shukhevich’s house museum in Lviv was also bombed.
On January 7, 2024, in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, Russia launched a missile attack on Ukraine. A photo lay among the ruins in the village of Rivno near the town of Pokrovsk.Photo: Oleksandr Ratushniak/Reuters/Dazhi Image
In his New Year’s address, Putin tried to downplay the war and made no mention of the attack in Belgorod.But when he met with representatives of wounded Russian soldiers on January 1, he began toBig talkRegarding this incident, he called it a “terrorist attack”, said that he was “furious”, and promised to “intensify the attack” on Ukraine.
In the early morning of January 2, the Russian army launched large-scale air strikes on Kiev and Kharkiv, using a combination of more than a hundred various types of missiles, including suicide drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and “Dagger” hypersonic missiles. ammunition.Ukrainian air defense forces claim to have shot downMore than 90%target, but the “fish that slipped through the net” still caused serious damage to residential buildings and energy infrastructure in the two places, causing 5 deaths and 119 injuries. A Russian cruise missile even malfunctioned and crashed in Russia’s Voronezh region, destroying seven local houses. It is worth noting that in the attacks on December 29 and January 2, the Russian army was found to have used North Korea’s KN-23 (Hwasong-11) ballistic missiles.
In the early morning of January 3, Ukraine launched another retaliatory attack on Belgorod. The Russian Ministry of Defense said it intercepted all six “Dot-U” ballistic missiles and six “Alder” rockets launched by the Ukrainian army, but one civilian was still killed. On January 6, a Russian missile attack on Pokrovsk in Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk Oblast killed at least 11 people, including five children. It is worth noting that the above list only includes large-scale “extra” bombings around the New Year. In “hotspot” areas adjacent to the front line that are often attacked in normal times, “routine” shelling around the New Year also killed at least 30 people, most of them caused by Russian troops.
Although Russia always uses retaliation against the Ukrainian army to justify its large-scale air strikes, in fact, such complex attacks often require a long time to accumulate ammunition and arrange routes.Published by the UK Defense Intelligence AgencyReportIt is pointed out that the recent bombing shows that Russia realizes the role of defense industrial capabilities in a long-term war, and therefore is likely to change its air strike tactics: from destroying Ukraine’s energy infrastructure last winter to now mainly targeting military industrial enterprises. In other words, Russia’s air strikes were a strategic decision, and Ukraine’s counterattack was just a pretext for its actions.
In comparison, the Ukrainian army’s attack on Belgorod on December 30 was more like an emotional reaction, and it served an important purpose of harassing Russia’s rear – to divide Russian society and deepen public anti-war sentiment. It is likely to have only negative effects. And Putin obviously will not stop air strikes in Ukraine just because he is worried that Russian civilians may be retaliated against. The attack on January 2 is a clear proof. If similar incidents occur regularly, they could further shake Western allies’ already waning support for Ukraine. (Extended reading: “Dialogue on War and Responsibility (Part 1): Should ordinary Russians be responsible for the Russia-Ukraine war?”)
After the attack, allies continued to support Ukraine at both rhetorical and operational levels for the time being. Russia held an emergency meeting of the Security Council on the night of the attack to discuss the matter, but Western countries placed the blame squarely on the Kremlin, which launched the aggression. On January 3, NATO also announced that it would help member states purchase up to 1,000 “Patriot” missiles so that they can transfer their air defense systems to Ukraine. However, as the war of attrition between the two sides enters an increasingly brutal new stage, the Russian army may launch more large-scale attacks, and the Ukrainian army may also make more emotional retaliations. For the civilians of the two countries, 2024 may not be a calm and peaceful year.
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2024-01-17 00:03:54
