Russian Pro-Ukrainian Forces Raid Belgorod Region: Updates and Reactions

The beginning and progress of the operation in the Belgorod region

Units of the Russian pro-Ukrainian “RDK” and “LSR” raided the Belgorod region in the Russian Federation on May 22 early in the morning. Russian sources began to report that their detachment, consisting of two tanks, an armored personnel carrier and another nine armored vehicles, crossed the international border and took control of Kozinka, a village in the Graivoronsky district of the Belgorod region, 600 meters from the border with the Ukrainian Sumy region.

Several Russian sources claimed that the group then took the settlements of Glotovo and Gora Podol (3 km and 5 km from the border, respectively), although some bloggers disputed such claims, instead reporting that RDK forces only reached the House of Culture in Glotovo.

ISW experts have not yet found geolocation confirmation that “RDK” or “LSR” reached Glotovo or Gora Podil. Geolocation footage released on May 22 does confirm that the RDK hit a border post near Kozinka before crossing the border with at least one tank.

RDK also posted footage reportedly showing the body of a Russian border guard at a border station, likely from a border crossing near Kozinka.

Russian “military correspondents” later claimed that Russian troops had regained control of all three settlements. Some Russian sources additionally reported that Russian forces repelled an attack by pro-Ukrainian sabotage groups near Dronovka, about 22 kilometers northwest of Kozinka.

RDK posted additional footage reportedly outside two communities near the border in Russia’s Bryansk region, but ISW analysts saw no additional evidence or discussion of activity in the Bryansk region on May 22.

What they say in Ukraine about the raids “RDK” and “LSR”

Ukrainian officials noted that they were aware of the attack, but denied any direct involvement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Andriy Yusov, spokesman for the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, noted that “RDK” and “LSR” consist exclusively of citizens of the Russian Federation, and said that the groups had launched an operation in the Belgorod region to “liberate these territories from the so-called Putin regime” and to create “security zones” near the border to protect Ukrainian civilians from further shelling by the Russian Federation.

Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said that our state is observing and studying the situation, but “has no direct relation to it,” noting that against the backdrop of the war, armed anti-government Russian partisan movements are inevitable.

The reaction of the Russian authorities

The raid caused a lot of responses from local and federal Russian authorities. Governor of the Belgorod Region Vyacheslav Gladkov announced on May 22 the beginning of a counter-terrorist operation in order to “ensure the safety of the citizens of the Belgorod Region.”

The Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Belgorod region reported that they did not announce the evacuation, and suggested that some people may leave of their own free will. The speaker of the Russian dictator Dmitry Peskov said that the Ministry of Defense, the FSB and the Border Service of the Russian Federation reported to Vladimir Putin about “an attempt by Ukrainian saboteurs to break into the Belgorod region” and accused Ukraine of staging the incident in order to divert attention from the situation in Bakhmut.

The Russian “voenkor” also claimed that the military leadership of the Russian Federation decided to transfer the 74th motorized rifle brigade (41st combined arms army, Central Military District) to the border region of the Belgorod region to repel the attack.

Panic and criticism

“The Russian information space has reacted with the same panic, factionalism and inconsistency as during the significant information shocks,” the publication says.

Some “military correspondents” fixated on the fact that “RDK” and “LSR” are mainly Russians and branded them traitors to the Russian Federation, others also suggested that the attack was a targeted information operation designed to divert attention from Bakhmut and cause panic in the Russian information space in anticipation of a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Russian ardent nationalist and blogger Igor Girkin noted that he had long warned that such cross-border raids could be part of a broader Ukrainian counteroffensive strategy.

And Wagner PMC founder Yevgeny Prigozhin used the incident to blame the Russian government and its bureaucratic inertia for facilitating the attack, and also criticized the Russian Defense Ministry for failing to strengthen borders and protect Russia.

The first observable line of Russian defensive fortifications runs 2 km from Mount Podil, and the assumption that RDK forces managed to break through the defensive line highlights the weakness of such fortifications, at least when they are not fully manned by well-trained and well-equipped soldiers. analysts pay attention.

While most of the “military correspondents” reacted relatively differently: with concern, anxiety and anger, the information space did not merge around one coherent reaction, which indicates, first of all, that the attack took Russian commentators by surprise, summarize in ISW.

Key Findings

• Wagner PMC founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said his mercenaries would be withdrawn from all front lines in Ukraine after June 1 to recover and train for about two months.
• Ukrainian officials said limited fighting continued in and around Bakhmut on 22 May.
• The Russian media reaction to the alleged capture of Bakhmut has so far been focused on the struggle for responsibility for the victory, and not on discussing the current military situation. The over-focus on the Bakhmut victory claim distracts from the dangerous Russian military situation in and around Bakhmut, highlighting the weight of Prigozhin’s influence in the media space.
• On the night of May 21-22, Russian troops launched another large-scale unmanned missile attack on Ukrainian infrastructure.
• Russian troops continued limited ground attacks in the Kupyansk direction.
• Russian forces have made little progress in the Avdiivka area and have not carried out any confirmed or reported ground attacks in the western part of the Donetsk region.
• It is reported that Zaporozhye NPP lost electricity for the seventh time since the beginning of the war.
• The Russian military is reportedly reducing the duration of training for convicts to make up for the heavy losses.
• The Russian occupation “authorities” have announced that preliminary “voting” for the ruling United Russia party has begun in the occupied territories.