“Russia will respond strongly to EU sanctions”

-What do you think of the political consensus reached yesterday in the EU to impose new sanctions against Russia?

-In fact, there is not much consensus because the sanctions have only been directed against four Russian officials. They do not have a broader economic impact, they are relatively mild. The more anti-Russian EU members wanted much more, but most are concerned that a serious deterioration in relations with Moscow could have dangerous economic and security implications. Some are concerned about the possible confrontation on the northern flank and others about the cheap and reliable Russian gas through the Nord Stream 2.

-Do you foresee any forceful response from the president Vladimir Putin to sanctions?

-It reminds me of a spy scandal, when countries expel each other’s diplomats. Each new round of expulsions seems like a serious escalation, when in fact the last round is actually notable for being lighter than expected. That is what we have here. The latest EU sanctions are much weaker than many feared. Consequently, Russia’s response is likely to be rhetorically strong, but also mild.