Recently, a piece of news that “Russia has stopped implementing the agreement on the export of agricultural products at Black Sea ports” has exploded the global agricultural product market, and the impact is spreading.
In addition, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also recently released a report confirming that El Niño conditions have formed in the tropical Pacific region for the first time in seven years. Price increased.
A reporter from the Financial Associated Press learned from various interviews that due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and the extreme weather of El Nino, the global food crisis may continue in the future, and genetic modification is expected to become an important solution to ensure food security. Accelerating the development of genetically modified foods in China can not only ensure food security, but also increase the commercial value of related seed companies. Some experts pointed out in an interview with reporters, “The international food crisis is expected to accelerate the development of domestic genetically modified products. If the commercialization of genetically modified products is implemented, there will be a large number of companies like Dabeinong (002385.SZ), Longping Hi-Tech (000998.SZ), and China Seed Group. Enterprises with excellent genetically modified technology reserves are likely to take a further lead in commercial value.”
Influenced by extreme weather and the war between Russia and Ukraine, international grain prices may run strongly
Recently, Russia announced that it would stop participating in the Black Sea grain export agreement, and the global grain market reacted immediately. Among them, the futures prices of corn, wheat and soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade rose across the board the next day, and U.S. wheat futures also surged 8.5% on the 18th, setting a record high. The biggest one-day gain since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022.
The Russia-Ukraine war has affected food trade, and the extreme climate of El Niño is affecting food production globally. It is understood that the tropical Pacific Ocean has formed El Niño conditions for the first time in seven years. El Niño generally occurs every 2-7 years, and its impact on global temperature usually appears within a year. Therefore, the impact of this El Niño phenomenon on temperature may be most obvious in 2024.
The World Meteorological Organization also issued a report stating that El Nino weather may have an adverse impact on global food production. If electricity and energy prices also rise, it will lead to an increase in the price of basic agricultural supply factors, thereby driving up global agricultural product prices.
In this regard, Li Yingxue, a corn analyst at the Agricultural Products Division of Shanghai Iron and Steel Union, told reporters, “Affected by the above factors, the major grain exporting countries in the world may control the export volume, which will affect the effective supply of world grain to a certain extent. tightening, international food prices are bound to run relatively strong.”
In addition, Tianfeng Securities also pointed out that the El Niño phenomenon has officially formed, which may cause drought in northern my country. If extreme high temperature weather occurs, it may cause greater pressure on food cultivation.
In fact, in the era of global development integration, the impact of the international food crisis on the country cannot be ignored. Taking corn as an example, “China has imported a large amount of corn in recent years. In 2022, it will import 20.62 million tons of corn, making up for the domestic Many feed companies also use imported corn as a substitute, if international corn exporting countries reduce their exports, the domestic supply of feed corn will decrease, which will also have a certain impact on domestic corn prices.” Li Yingxue pointed out.
GMOs the solution to food security?The development process may be expected to accelerate
In the context of the continuing international food crisis, it is even more urgent to ensure food security. To ensure food security, seeds are the foundation. In recent years, the revitalization of the domestic seed industry and the development of genetically modified products have been continuously mentioned, and are considered by the industry to be an important solution to the problem of food security.
Internationally, under the international food crisis, there were media reports that the European Union plans to relax restrictions on genetically modified crops in response to the threat of climate change. This move aims to help farmers cope with climate change.
From a domestic point of view, the development of domestic transgenics has also been accelerating in recent years. On June 8 last year, the official website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released the “National Standards for the Examination of Genetically Modified Soybean Varieties (Trial)” and “The National Standards for the Examination of Genetically Modified Corn Varieties (Trial)”. The No. 1 document is the first time to clearly propose to accelerate the pace of industrialization of biological breeding, and pay more attention to the industrial transformation brought about by biological breeding.
According to Professor Huang Yubi, dean of the College of Agriculture of Sichuan Agricultural University and deputy director of the “Southwest Crop Breeding” Engineering Research Center of the Ministry of Education, “Genetic modification is a feasible and effective solution and effective way to ensure food security and stability. At present, genetic modification is mainly The traits of insect resistance, disease resistance and herbicide tolerance can effectively reduce costs while ensuring production. Strictly speaking, genetic modification will not increase yield per unit area, but it can reduce damage, which is a relative increase in production. At present, global products are mainly concentrated In terms of traits such as insect resistance, but with the development of science in the future, scientists all over the world, including scientists in our country, have already made preparations. For example, genes for drought resistance and high temperature resistance have been found, and their functions are also very clear. Yes, genetic modification can be used to solve the corresponding problems. So in the case of global warming, genetic modification is also one of the effective solutions.”
Another person in the industry said that genetically modified seeds have the advantage of increasing production. The main function of genetically modified is insect resistance and herbicide resistance. No matter which corn area in China is more or less threatened by insect pests, the yield loss caused by it is about 10%-50%. . Compared with ordinary corn, genetically modified corn can increase yield by about 10%.
Taking Brazil, Argentina, and South Africa as examples, the export volume of Brazil and Argentina has increased year by year after planting GM soybeans. In 2019, Brazil and Argentina accounted for more than half of the world’s soybean exports. After South Africa promoted the planting of GM insect-resistant corn, the yield per unit area doubled. From a corn-importing country to a corn-exporting country.
CITIC Securities also pointed out that in the short term, the recent El Niño will mainly affect my country’s planting industry, disturb the supply of related agricultural products, stimulate the demand for high-quality seeds, and structurally affect the import of related important agricultural products. In the medium and long term, under the background of frequent extreme weather in the world, improving the breeding level and developing high-quality varieties through biological breeding technology is the only way to ensure the stability of my country’s agricultural production.
However, the development of GMOs in my country is still facing many difficulties. “The main problem we are facing now is everyone’s cognitive problems. In fact, from the technical and scientific point of view, this is a problem that has been solved long ago, but some negative opinions on it in the society. Incomplete understanding leads to always thinking that GMOs are harmful or have potential risks, but in fact the society needs to do a comprehensive science popularization work on GMOs.” Huang Yubi pointed out.
The commercial value is rich, and the excellent reserve seed enterprise is expected to be the champion in the future
The development of genetically modified products can not only contribute to food security, but also create corresponding commercial value for related seed companies.According to Tianfeng Securitiesresearch reportIt is estimated that after the commercialization of genetically modified seeds, the factory scale of genetically modified seeds (corn, soybean) in my country is expected to reach 43.2 billion yuan, and the profit is expected to reach 13 billion yuan.
In Huang Yubi’s view, “The commercialization of genetically modified products will also help the commercial value of enterprises. For enterprises, large-scale enterprises must do genetically modified genes, because there is an investment problem in mass production. At present, it does not matter whether it is Dabei Nong. Whether it is Zhongzhong, the technology of these leading companies has matured long ago, and they can fully undertake the corresponding work. If the commercialization of genetic modification is implemented, companies such as Dabeinong with excellent genetically modified technology reserves may further develop Leading in business value.”
According to the reporter’s understanding, in recent years, my country’s transgenic commercialization process has accelerated. Four domestic corn varieties and three soybean varieties have been approved for agricultural genetically modified biosafety certificates. If domestic transgenic seeds are commercialized, it will promote the expansion of the seed industry and reshape the pattern. , to increase market concentration.
In terms of the development of the company, the reporter learned from relevant people in Longping Hi-Tech as an investor, “We have some technical reserves for genetically modified products. After the country opens up, we can sell some of the seeds we have stored in the warehouse. Now we are waiting The country is open to commercialization. In fact, we are quite strong in this area of research and development. We have participated in four trait companies, and one of them has obtained 4 safety certificates. Only after obtaining the national security certificate can the trait Import it into the corresponding seeds, and then test it. After the test is successful, it must pass the national variety approval before trial sales.” The above-mentioned person also revealed that the company invests a lot in research and development of rice and corn projects every year, which basically accounts for 10% of the operating income. %above.
A related person from Denghai Seed Industry (002041.SZ) told the reporter, “The company’s genetically modified development is progressing in an orderly manner. We are now selling 605D, which is sold in some areas according to national regulations. The company has cooperated with Dabeinong on genetically modified. At present, all aspects are advancing in an orderly manner in accordance with national regulations, and there are certain (technical) reserves.”
Some insiders pointed out that in the context of food security, my country’s genetically modified policies continue to be introduced, and the direction of biological breeding is firm. Companies with abundant genetically modified technology reserves are expected to gain first-mover advantages in the genetically modified seed industry market.
Haitong Securitiesresearch reportIt pointed out that the commercialization of genetically modified products may usher in important progress this year. After three years of genetically modified pilot work, the safety and effectiveness of genetically modified genes in my country have been fully verified. ), Dabeinong, Hangzhou Ruifeng (a joint stock company of Longping Hi-Tech), etc. have issued multiple batches of genetically modified safety certificates, and the commercialization of genetically modified genes in my country may be imminent. After commercialization, the market size of China’s seed industry will expand, and the higher technical threshold also means that large enterprises will have more advantages.
(Article source: Financial Associated Press)
Article source: Financial Associated Press
Author of the article: Liu Jian, Wang Ping’an
Original title: Could GMOs be the solution to exacerbate the international food crisis?Excellent reserve seed enterprises may stand out|Industry Observation
Solemnly declare:Oriental Fortune publishes this content to disseminate more information, has nothing to do with the position of this site, and does not constitute investment advice. Proceed accordingly at your own risk.
2023-07-30 12:30:36
#GMOs #solution #international #food #crisis #intensifiesExcellent #reserve #seed #companies #stand
