Russia is digging into Ukraine ahead of the widely anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive. According to British intelligence, there would therefore have been a switch from offensive to defensive tactics for several weeks. Ukraine has already launched its first ‘test attack’ at Kherson, but the ultimate goal, according to former Lieutenant General Mart de Kruif, lies elsewhere.
The head of Ukraine’s intelligence service, Kyrylo Budanov, also said in an interview this weekend that Russia has “switched to defensive positions in all battle zones except Bachmut.”
Good news, at least for the Russian soldiers falling by the bush. Partly due to the tactical switch, the number of daily wounded and killed on the Russian side is said to have fallen by 30 percent this month. In its daily briefing, the British Ministry of Defense states that this drop is probably also related to the end of the Russian winter offensive. Now that the hard-fought and tough-defended Bachmoet by Ukraine is still holding out, that offensive would have largely failed, except for some limited territorial gains.
Russian bloggers report in this connection that the Kremlin would have decided to replace a number of ‘failing’ generals again. According to British sources, Russia is now mainly preparing troops for the widely expected counter-offensive by Ukraine. Where that will go is still the question.
Evacuation
According to Ukrainian sources, Russia has started evacuating civilians from the areas below Kherson, across the Dnieper River. The evacuation comes days after Ukrainian troops crossed the river that separates the two armies. Many analysts believe that these are ‘spot checks’ where the Ukrainians want to test the Russian response.
My guess is that Ukraine is most likely to head towards Melitopol anyway
‘Sham attack’
“I don’t think this is the big counter-offensive either, rather a mock attack, says former lieutenant general of the Royal Netherlands Army Mart de Kruif. “If you go over the Dnieper, which is quite clever, by the way, that can very well be a side attack, because with that you bind all Russian units that are in the vicinity of Kherson. My guess is that Ukraine will most likely head towards Melitopol anyway to cut off Russian supply lines to Crimea, which is 50 miles away. I don’t want to say that the attack on Melitopol will definitely happen, but at least they divert attention from where they are going to place their center of gravity of the offensive.”
Reconquering Crimea is too ambitious, De Kruif thinks: “Then Putin will rattle with nuclear weapons and it is also difficult because you have to cross two headlands. Ukraine has a scarce offensive capacity and they will use it for what is really crucial and that is not the conquest of Crimea.”
De Kruif previously predicted that the Ukrainian counter-offensive would start in May or June, he still thinks so. “In the coming weeks, everything will depend on how far the Ukrainians are preparing their offensive. When you start you have to have your ammunition in stock for at least two or three weeks, otherwise there is no point. Nobody knows if that’s the case.”
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2023-04-25 09:27:20
#Ukrainians #test #Russians #spot #checks #soldiers #cross #dividing #river #Dnieper
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