Russia’s statement on Tihanovskaya ad search returns Russia among the active participants in the crisis in Belarus and comes as a reminder of which hands hold the key to resolving the situation in the neighboring country.
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Analyzing the move more broadly, this could indicate several things.
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First, Russia signals a “no” to Lukashenko’s deputies. Despite support for the current leader, Russia has so far been moderate with regard to Tikhanovsky. At the same time, the leader of the opposition has never denied the possibility of further cooperation with Russia, creating a space for talks between the two sides.
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However, looking at Tihanovska’s intensive search for support in Europe and thinking in the categories of real politics typical of Russia, it can be seen that no other candidate for power can guarantee Belarus’s further pro-Russian orientation better than the politically weak and economically dependent Lukashenko. In fact, any future leader of Belarus could be more successful in building relations with the West than the current one, which makes the issue geopolitical, equating it with the situations in Ukraine and Georgia.
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The goal is not to keep Lukashenko, but to save Belarus the status quo or to ensure even closer integration of the two countries.
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Secondly, this could send a signal to the European Union and other parties that Russia is not interested in the negotiation process. It has its own plan for Belarus and the tools to influence it, so there is no need to negotiate with other players. One scenario could be, for example, an agreement with the current leader on constitutional amendments and elections in Belarus at a time interval that would allow Lukashenko to prepare and “market” a political alternative.
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Alexander Lukashenko arrives in Russia
PHOTO: AFP / SCANPIX
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Of course, the psychological pressure of an unprecedented amount of protests on Lukashenko cannot be denied. In addition, it is engaging in some international pressure. However, for objective reasons, Russia’s leverage is significantly higher in Belarus (more than 50% of Belarus’s economy is dependent on Russia, at least two Russian military strategic sites are located in Belarus, Belarus has contractual obligations with Russia in organizations such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Russia – United State of Belarus, CIS Customs Union and others). This suggests that the European Union, which positions itself as a stakeholder and a potential mediator, may not have a sufficient arsenal of possible instruments to facilitate dialogue. In addition, some of the EU’s pressure instruments could cause difficulties for the people of Belarus and increase Belarus’s further dependence on Russia. In the meantime, it is unlikely that the EU would be ready at this stage to use important positive instruments, such as substantial financial support, visa-free travel and others, as this would potentially put pressure on the organization itself, which is not Belarus’s top priority.
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Consequently, in order to make progress on the issue of Belarus, it may be necessary to bring Russia to the negotiating table and to lose its interest in supporting the Lukashenko regime.
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In theory, behavior change can be promoted in two ways: through punishment or gain (stick or carrot). In practice, this will not be easy, because the European Union is made up of the interests of 27 individual countries, and for many, practical cooperation with Russia would be more important than solidarity in principle with Belarus. At the same time, one could think about actualizing the issue of the construction of the Nord Stream II gas pipeline, which is already on the agenda in connection with the poisoning of A. Navalny.
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From the perspective of motivational instruments, it will be difficult for the EU to offer something that would cause Russia to abandon not only Lukashenko, but also the main goal of geopolitical control of Belarus. For this reason, a challenging time is expected ahead without a quick solution to the situation.
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Svetlana Tikhanovska, leader of the democratic opposition in Belarus
PHOTO: AFP / SCANPIX
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