NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (63) said at a discussion event in Finland on Sunday, Ukraine must sacrifice territory for peace. Is Ukraine Fatigue Spreading in the West? Peace has its price, said Stoltenberg: “Peace is possible. The only question is: what price are (the Ukrainians) willing to pay for peace? How much territory, how much independence, how much sovereignty are they willing to sacrifice for peace?”
The statements by the NATO Secretary General are surprising given the fact that Western politicians – including Stoltenberg himself – have repeatedly emphasized in the past that a Ukrainian victory in this war is possible. Can there still be talk of a Ukrainian victory if the country has to cede territory to Russia? Blick spoke to Russia expert Erich Gysling (85) about the meaning of the statements: “Stoltenberg put it in the form of a question,” says Gysling. “Ukraine must ask itself whether it would be willing to give up certain territories. Ultimately, however, the decision rests with Ukraine.” According to Gyslig, nothing has changed in the basic attitude of NATO or Western decision-makers in relation to the conflict.
The number of victims “insanely large”
The Nato chief’s changed rhetoric is nevertheless striking. “This war will end at the negotiating table,” said Stoltenberg on Sunday. As recently as May he declared that “Ukraine can win this war”. Why this rhetorical about-face? According to Gysling, this reflects the uncertainty about the further course of the war. The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selsenski (44) keeps making comments in one direction or the other. «He, too, once said that the conflict could not only be won by Ukraine militarily. He, too, said the war had to end at the negotiating table,” says Gysling. Nevertheless: “Even the Ukrainians probably didn’t expect the Russians to cling so tightly to the east and south-east of the country.”
According to Gysling, it is now also apparent that the number of victims is “insanely large”. Also on the Ukrainian side: “Ukraine says it has lost 10,000 soldiers. On the Russian side, the number is likely to be even higher. This war has developed a momentum of its own that was not apparent just a few weeks ago.”
Ukraine with increasingly unrealistic demands
If you compare today’s situation, in which Ukraine is losing territory, with the situation before the war, it is difficult to see Ukraine as a victor in this conflict, despite heavy Russian losses. “The West and NATO should put Ukraine in the strongest possible position,” says Gysling. “The question is: How much staying power does Ukraine have, even with the help of NATO arms support?”
In this context, however, it must also be said that “the demands from Ukraine are now increasing to dimensions that NATO cannot guarantee”. Kyiv demands 500 tanks or more, 2000 armored vehicles, 1000 drones, depending on the source. “One mustn’t forget that this material is not readily available and some of it has to be produced first,” says Gysling. “The NATO countries must also maintain their own defense capabilities.”
“Grit to Putin’s mill”
According to Gysling, Stoltenberg’s rhetorical change of course means “that NATO sees that there are limits to this solidarity that the West can guarantee”. Whether Stoltenberg’s statements were clever is another question. “Of course, these are grist to the mill of Russian President Vladimir Putin (69). So he can again claim that there is disagreement in the West about how to act against Russia.”
According to Stoltenberg, the NATO states should continue to supply Ukraine with weapons in order to strengthen their position at the negotiating table. At the same time, however, diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict have come to a standstill. A new attempt and the conclusion of negotiations are likely to take a long time. Gysling: «For the time being, nothing is being seriously negotiated. Both sides are currently looking at how much stamina the opponent has. Ukraine’s hope is that the Russian side will become weaker and weaker. In Russia, with a population of over 144 million, human resources are of course greater than in Ukraine. But apparently they are smaller than initially assumed before the start of the war.”
Russian advance in Sievjerodonetsk
It remains to be seen which side will benefit if the conflict drags on. At the moment, the situation on the battlefield looks rather unfavorable for Ukraine: the eastern and south-eastern edges of Ukraine seem to be more or less firmly in the hands of the Russian army. On Monday, the Ukrainian side also reported that Russian troops had taken the center of the city of Sievjerodonetsk.
“At Sievjerodonetsk there is currently still a Ukrainian-controlled area that protrudes like a pocket into the area occupied by Russian troops,” says Gysling. “I suspect that Russia, like a few weeks ago in Mariupol, will succeed in conquering the rest.”
–
