This fall could satellite images show that the Russians had moved a significant number of soldiers closer to the border with Ukraine.
The escalation in the conflict has led to concerns among both NATO and the United States, who believe the purpose of the escalation is to invade.
– Now we are there that Russia can attack Ukraine at any time, President Joe Biden’s spokesman Jen Psaki warned on Tuesday.
Russia rejects this and considers itself exposed to threats and demands security guarantees from NATO. Among other things, President Vladimir Putin has asked that Ukraine not become part of the defense alliance.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg held a press conference on Friday 7 January following an emergency meeting due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Video: AP
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The capital will be central
Several meetings between NATO and the two great powers have so far not led to a solution between the countries.
So what will really happen if the Russians go to war, and how will it happen?
The possibilities are many, but senior researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment and expert on Russian and Ukrainian security policy, Tor Bukkvoll, highlights three possible scenarios:
“If Russia should actually decide on further attacks on Ukraine, much depends on whether they will try to take control of Ukraine’s capital Kiev or not,” he told Dagbladet.
Stable unstable in Putin’s backyard
– The advantage of this from the Russian side is that they can then create their own government and pursue their own policy. The disadvantages are that it is an extremely large operation that will lead to significant losses, both in the innovation phase and during the occupation.
The senior researcher will not give an estimate of how many people may lose their lives if this happens, but says that it can take a long time.
– It is a violent thing to do that will lead to a slow bleeding over time. The costs are so great, so I strongly doubt whether the Russians are willing to do this.
– WILL LOSE MANY: According to senior researcher and expert on Russian and Ukrainian security policy, Tor Bukkvoll, the Russians will lose many soldiers if they go to war. Photo: The Norwegian Defense Research Establishment
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Can take the coastline
The second scenario that Bukkvoll envisages is a small military operation, where the Russians want to annex the areas along the coastline towards the Crimean peninsula.
– The disadvantage of this is that they can not just take a small part. These are fairly large areas, which in turn lead to the use of large resources.
Finally, Bukkvoll also mentions the possibilities that Russia will attack parts of Ukraine with long-range weapons.
– Some Russian analysts have suggested this as a possibility. Such an action would possibly lead to a more limited loss for the Russians, but would probably not lead to Ukrainians changing their policies.
Danger of war: – Very serious situation
– As much pain as possible
Should there be a war between the two nations, there are large resource differences between the two parties. According to Bukkvoll, the Russian defense has about one million soldiers ready for battle on paper, but not all of these are equally well trained.
– About a third of the soldiers are conscripts, but they also have a significant number of soldiers who have combat experience, including from Syria. In addition, the Russians have bought a huge amount of weapons in recent years.
There are great contrasts to the Ukrainian forces.
– Their weaponry is not modernized in the same way. In total, there are about 250,000 standing forces in the defense of Ukraine, but even if they have received some weapons from the West, they will be clearly inferior to the Russians.
PREPARED: Ukrainian forces are already ready to resist if the Russians attack. Photo: Wolfgang Schwan / Shutterstock / NTB
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The expert then emphasizes that this is something that the Ukrainians are also aware of.
– There is no one who expects that Russia can be stopped if they go to war. At the same time, they want to inflict as much pain on the Russians as possible. Going into a kind of “guerrilla mode” will create motivation and be an advantage, but it is still not enough to be able to stop them. If Russia enters with large forces, they will be able to occupy large parts of the country, but it will be difficult not to lose many men, Bukkvoll concludes.
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