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“Rising Tensions between Russian Army and Wagner: Who Will Emerge Victorious?”

New progress was made by the Russian “Wagner” group, on Wednesday, by taking control of the town of Zalaznyansky, near the center of Bakhmut, in eastern Ukraine, amid severe tension between the unofficial group and the Russian army over the “owner of victories.”

The head of the group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, had previously accused the army of preventing ammunition and supplies from his men. Which puts them in a bad position during the fight.

And on Tuesday, the Russian parliament entered the crisis line by voting to approve an amendment punishing those who defame the “volunteer” groups that fight alongside the army. That is, Wagner.

The move was welcomed by Prigozhin, who asked parliament in January to ban media reporting on the group.

If the differences between the army and “Wagner” continue, political researchers expect, in their interview with “Sky News Arabia”, that it will be like a Russian bear shooting one of its feet, while Ukraine seizes the opportunity.

Moscow’s concern

Dr. Basil Hajj Jassem, a researcher specializing in Russian-European affairs, says that Wagner’s contributions to achieving victories, the most recent of which were in the cities of Solidar and Bakhmut, are followed by the world.

As for the origin of the dispute, Jassem explains that: “Victory is only counted for those with military uniforms. As for those with promises like Wagner, they are satisfied with financial privileges, or some media and political praise, which was granted to them by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Therefore, the Russian military wants all victory; Which does not satisfy Wagner.

The dispute also touches on what is described as the “political ambitions” of the Wagner leader, which Jassim believes has aroused Putin’s concern, who also fears the group’s transformation into a parallel army with an ideological background.

Wagner’s dissatisfaction

An American report described “Wagner” as aspiring to become a “parallel military organization”, after it included about 50,000 fighters, while Prigozhin and his fighters hit the tables in front of the army to obtain more ammunition daily.

An analysis by the Institute for the Study of War in Washington predicted that the Russian army would seek to eliminate the “Wagner” fighters on the battlefields, while Prigozhin accused the army’s supreme command of preventing his fighters from handing over shovels that would allow them to dig trenches, which made fighting very difficult for them in Bakhmut.

Prigozhin also attacked Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, describing them in a sarcastic tone as “two exceptional military leaders”, in a “smear campaign” that will serve the interests of the West in the war, according to the British newspaper “The Guardian”.

Wagner tactic

Vorogtsov Starikov, a researcher at the “Volsk” military institution, appreciates the recent successes of “Wagner”, which “raised its shares on the Russian street.”

However, he warns that the conflict between the Ministry of Defense and “Wagner” will certainly serve the interests of Ukraine, citing that:

  • The degree of cooperation and coordination on the axes of fighting between the two sides has suffered some damage, and this is important for the West before the spring battle that Kiev and its allies are preparing for against Russia.
  • The severe disagreements are one of the reasons for delaying the decision in Bakhmut.

Regarding what contributed to fueling the dispute, Starikov says:

  • Wagner’s approach to ammunition without calculation or strategy.
  • The group marketed itself in the media inside Russia, and sometimes deliberately embarrassed army leaders.
  • For the past two months, Wagner has cut off coordination with the army, especially in the east.

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