household life index (KR-ECI) November 22 Highest in 14 months Thai families are less concerned about the cost of living, such as the price level of goods and expenses. While inflation remained a factor that dragged down the demand for spending at the end of the year.
December 11, 2022 – The Kasikorn Research Center said that the Household Economic and Living Index (KR-ECI) in November 2022 rose to 35.0, a 14-month high from 33.8 in October 2022, but still below the pre-covid level. the index also rose to 36.4 from 35.7 in October 2022, showing that households are less concerned about the cost burden. Corresponding to the Thai inflation index in November 2022 which weakened for the third consecutive month to 5.55%
The prices of many items, such as fruits and vegetables such as kale, lentils, collard greens and rice, rose at a slower pace, continuing to fall for a second month, while Thailand still maintains the retail price of diesel at 35 baht per liter for the sixth month, as well as the cost of electricity, which is now 4.72 baht per unit through December. 65 will likely be docked until early next year. while the recovery of the tourism sector will support domestic consumption and employment to continue to improve
However, families are still concerned about future income. Reflected through the index, which was down slightly from the previous month. (More troubling) from salary and compensation concerns. Because Thailand’s economy is still recovering.
Furthermore, going forward, it is likely to face many challenging factors in the global economic outlook that are likely to slow down. which will drag down the demand for Thai products
Family Life Index Nov. The highest in 14 months, together with the volume of orders from China still very uncertain. Though China has started to ease measures to control COVID. from Thailand exports in October 2022 face contraction for the first time in 20 months
Kasikorn Research Center sees that Overall, Thai exports will grow below the previous estimate of 7.8% year-on-year this year. This could affect the manufacturing sector and employment in the country. In addition, the Kasikorn Research Center forecasts that farm income in 2023 could contract by 0.8% year-on-year due to price pressure.
The Kasikorn Research Center conducted a further survey of families’ holiday parties and travel plans by the end of 2022. It found that 38% of families plan to host a party with friends/family already high, and another 22% have no plans as I still don’t trust the COVID-19 situation
The Kasikorn Research Center expects Thai domestic travel in the last two months of the year will increase 6.8% year on year.
Furthermore, when asked about their expectations for household spending in the last month of 2022, 54% of households expected spending to increase compared to the previous month. The projected increase in expenses can be broken down into dinner expenses (38%), raffle gift purchases (26%), donations (18%), travel expenses (17%) and others such as giving money (1% )
in the future The economic recovery and household livelihoods are still fragile due to many key risk factors. In particular, world energy prices, although they have started to decline, are still subject to risks that can fluctuate.
In addition, domestic inflation may not slow due to continued pass-through of costs from business to consumers, coupled with the reduction of government energy subsidies.
While the world’s major economy such as the United States and the European Union is likely to enter a technical recession next year, which may affect the continuation of Thailand’s economic recovery.
Additionally, the direction of MPC policy rate hikes (by 2023, expected to rise to 1.75-2.00%) could affect household finance costs due to the trend of passing more interest rates by commercial banks. Which is now starting to see the direction of interest rate hikes for the retail customers of various banks.
However, several economic stimulus measures that should become clearer later this year, such as tax relief measures, need to be monitored. measures to stimulate spending and tourism, etc., which may need to consider the coherence of the measures with further target groups
