A new second round, more than three months after the first, a feared coronavirus, a non-campaign: abstention reached a new record Sunday for municipal with more than six voters out of ten who shunned the ballot boxes.
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It was a bit like the chronicle of an announced disillusionment. The 1st round had already been very bad in terms of electoral mobilization with a record abstention of 55.4%. According to the polling institutes, it should still climb to be at an historic level, between 59% and 60%, about 12 points more than for the second round of 2014.
A disappointment for the election of mayors when it is the political function that remains the most appreciated by the French according to opinion polls.
“It was necessary to do away with the municipal elections (…) but the voters were not there”, summed up on LCI the pollster Jérôme Jaffré for whom “it is the electoral process itself which was vitiated” as soon as the start with a 1st lap which could not be canceled on the eve of confinement.
“The context of the health crisis is still not blurred for voters,” said Cevipof researcher Bruno Cautrès on Franceinfo, for whom “the fear of being contaminated in the polling stations”, despite the health measures adopted , was “one of the main obstacles to participation”, as in the first round.
According to a Sopra-steria poll for France TV, Radio France, LCP and Public Sénat on the motivations of voters, 43% of those questioned cited the risk of catching Covid-19 as the first reason for their abstention.
But fear of the virus is not the only factor in this civic disaster after a “campaign which was the longest in the Fifth Republic and which has never increased in power”, according to Frédéric Dabi, the deputy director general of Ifop, on Cnews.
“There was no second-round campaign, no meeting possibilities, no door-to-door possibilities, no possibilities of physical contact between candidates and voters,” recalls Jérôme Jaffré.
With a second round postponed by more than three months, “we had this very special long period where the soufflé fell a little”, also underlines Brice Teinturier, the deputy director general of the Ipsos polling institute, on France 2.
But he also insisted on the absence of a “national dynamic” because “it is not a national election against the power where it is a question of beating outgoing mayors affiliated with a power which would be unpopular, as we had had in 2014 “.
In contrast, in some, but not all, hotly contested cities, abstention declined. “We also see very strong mobilizations in cities where there is a stake”, as in Perpignan (52.8%), Nancy (57.9%, against 62.9% in the first round) or in Bastia (35.9%), insists Brice Teinturier, who recalls that “the national average covers differences”.
It would also be a mistake to focus only on the cyclical nature of this new abstentionist push.
“With the exception of the Europeans in May 2019 where we had seen a revival of participation, we see gradually registering a form of democracy of abstention in France”, elections after elections, warns Bruno Cautrès.
“The presidential election is still motivating, but the other elections are struggling to find the motivation of voters,” he adds.
In the Sopra-steria poll, 38% of those polled say they have not voted because they think the elections will not change their daily lives, 27% because they do not like any list or candidate.
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