[뉴스토마토 백아란·김성은 기자] Real estate experts set an average of 6.8 points out of 10 for real estate policies that have been promoted for a year since the launch of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration. In a situation where the real estate economy deteriorated due to high interest rates and unprecedented transaction cliffs, efforts were made to avoid a hard landing, such as easing resale restrictions and measures 1 and 3, but it is judged that the policy effect was limited due to slow legislation.
8 days <뉴스토마토>According to a survey conducted with 10 real estate experts on the occasion of the first year of the Yoon Seok-Yeol administration’s inauguration, experts generally positively evaluated the Yoon administration’s soft landing measures, such as the full lifting of regulatory areas and tax reform, but delayed legislation of some policies and poor project financing. It is regrettable that loan regulations such as response to (PF) and total debt repayment ratio (DSR) are holding back.
Despite the controversy over tax cuts for the wealthy, measures for a soft landing, such as lifting regulatory areas, are ‘appropriate’
Park Won-gap, senior real estate expert at KB Kookmin Bank, said, “Real estate policy must breathe with the market trend, but the fact that measures to prevent a hard landing, such as completely lifting all areas except for Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa and Yongsan in Seoul, from regulatory areas, is He said, “It is regrettable that some policy legislation is being delayed while the reverse tax crisis and the PF problem of construction companies remain as detonators of the market.”
Lee Eun-hyeong, a researcher at the Korea Institute for Construction Policy Studies, said, “It is positive that the normalization of excessive real estate regulations was presented as a national task and promoted, but it is regrettable that the government did not boldly implement deregulation from the beginning of the regime.”
It is pointed out that deregulation was not boldly implemented in the early days of the administration, and matters that require legal amendments, such as the income tax law or the abolition of the mandatory residency, are drifting, reducing the credibility of the policy and causing confusion in the market. In addition, it was pointed out that the controversy over tax reduction for the wealthy was raised as policies to reduce real estate ownership tax, such as easing comprehensive real estate tax, and that countermeasures were promoted mainly in the metropolitan area amid an increase in malicious unsold sales nationwide as insufficient points.
“Prospect for further decline in house prices, accompanied by polarization”
Lim Jae-man, a professor at the Department of Real Estate Asset Management at Sejong University Graduate School of Industry, said, “(The fact that regulations were eased, such as allowing up to 30% of the LTV for multi-homeowners in real estate regulated areas), is a policy that created conditions for multi-homeowners to speculate.” pinched Song Seung-hyun, CEO of City and Economy, said, “It is a good thing to create an environment that can activate transactions, but it is regrettable that the public rental housing budget was cut by 25.1% (approximately 5.7 trillion won) in the 2023 budget.”
Prevention of charter fraud was cited as the number one policy that the government should focus on during the remainder of its term. It means that an alternative at the government level is needed as the so-called ‘Villa King’ incident, which recently bought a large number of townhouses, officetels and villas, to commit charter fraud, has become a social problem. Subsequently, plans for promoting mid- to long-term housing supply were prepared, various loan regulations were eased, and speedy redevelopment and reconstruction projects were also suggested as necessary policies.
Kim In-man, director of the Real Estate Economic Research Institute, said, “It is a policy that should provide top priority to support and preventive measures for victims of jeonse fraud.” If this collapses, it could adversely affect the housing market as a whole.”
“Interest rates and unsoldReal estate PF insolvency, real estate market will be detonated”
Regarding house prices over the next year, weight was placed on the possibility of further decline amid deepening polarization by region. Kwon Il, head of the real estate info research team, Park Won-gap, senior real estate expert, and professor Lim Jae-man, predicted that there would be an additional decline. There was no opinion predicting an additional rise, and there was an expectation that it would show a steady trend with a box range in which a slight rise and fall are repeated.
Professor Lim added, “There is a possibility that house prices will decline further over the next year,” adding, “The jeonse crisis, malicious unsold sales, insolvent PF, and household debt can act as detonators in the real estate market.”
In addition, experts believe that the increase in unsold homes and whether or not to raise interest rates will be the key to determining the direction of the real estate market. Kim Woong-sik, a researcher at Real Today, pointed out, “The key is interest rates, and the real estate market will be greatly affected by interest rates.”
Woo Byung-tak, head of the real estate team at Shinhan Bank’s WM Business Department, said, “There is room for the decline in house prices to be seen as price stabilization (an aspect of resolving the previous rapid rise), but this is due to market conditions rather than policies.” could be a detonator for the real estate market, which could deepen regional polarization.”
Yoon Ji-hae, senior researcher at Real Estate R114, said, “Since there is a possibility that the increase in unsold units, the possibility of corporate PF insolvency due to the increase in funding rates and inflation, can act as a detonator in the real estate market, it is necessary to respond to this and to promote various loan deregulation. ” suggested.
◇Real estate experts participating in the survey (in alphabetical order)
△ Kwon Il, Head of Real Estate Info Research Team △ Kim Woong-shik, Real Today Researcher △ Kim In-man, Director of Kim In-man Real Estate Economic Research Institute △ Park Won-gap, KB Kookmin Bank Real Estate Senior Expert Advisor △ Seo Jin-hyung, Co-CEO of Fair Housing Forum (Professor of MD Product Planning and Business Department, Kyungin Women’s University) △ Song Seung-hyeon City and Economy Representative △Woo Byeong-tak, Shinhan Bank WM Division Real Estate Team Leader △Yoon Ji-hae Real Estate R114 Senior Researcher △Lee Eun-hyeong Research Fellow, Korea Construction Policy Institute △Lim Jae-man Professor, Department of Real Estate Asset Management, Sejong University Graduate School of Industry
Reporters Baek Ah-ran and Kim Seong-eun [email protected]
This article was finally confirmed and corrected by Kang Young-kwan, Director of Industry 2, in accordance with the News Tomato Reporting Rules and Code of Ethics.
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