In July, developers handed over for use 14.3 thousand. flats, i.e. by 38 percent more than in July last year – according to the latest data of the Central Statistical Office. It is safe to say that not only July, but also the first seven months of this year, were successful for developers in this respect. During this time, they put into use 76.7 thousand. flats, i.e. as much as 11 percent more than in the same period a year ago.
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However, the latest GUS statistics are not a surprise. – These data are the result of construction works started about two years ago. It was a period of a rapidly growing scale of investments carried out by developers, which we can see today in the form of completed projects – says Bartosz Turek, chief analyst at HRE Investments.
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More about the current situation on the primary housing market, as well as the prospects for this market, can be found in the latest data from the Central Statistical Office on building permits and construction commenced. Are developers really recovering from the out of breath caused by the freezing of the economy?
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Additional property fee. “Such action is not rational”
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In July, developers started the construction of 12.3 thousand sq m. flats, which is a slightly better result (+1.3 percent) than a year ago and by as much as 32 percent. better than in June. So you can see a recovery and a return of the number of started construction works to the optimal levels before the lockdown. – This is one of the best evidence that developer sales are doing well – says an analyst from HRE Investments.
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This does not mean, however, that there is no trace of the pandemic decline in statistics on the market. If we take into account the entire period from January to July, it turns out that during this time developers started the construction of 65.8 thousand sq m. housing. It’s about 16.4 percent. less than in the corresponding period of the previous year.
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An important indicator of the assessment of the potential of the housing market in future periods are the statistics on building permits. – After a strong increase in June, July did bring a correction, but to a level that still corresponds to the record values of recent years – notes Jarosław Jędrzyński, an expert of Rynek Primary portal.
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In July, developers received building permits for 14,000 sq m. housing. The number of permits issued was similar to the previous year’s level and was 15 percent. lower than in June. However, in the entire period of January-July, which included, among others lockdown period, the number of permits was 88.2 thousand. This means a decrease by almost 5%. compared to the same period a year ago. However, it is much lower than in the case of construction projects started in this period.
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Sales are more important than the CSO bars
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– All in all, we have a picture of the still strong investment situation in the primary market, which seems to completely ignore the risks associated with the pandemic and the high probability of its escalation in the autumn perspective – concludes Jarosław Jędrzyński.
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At the same time, he points out that the results of housing construction must be followed by the sale of apartments. And for the foreseeable future it may become more and more difficult.
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– Thus, the joy of the growing stats of the CSO statistics is disturbed by anxiety about maintaining customer interest at the desired level – adds the expert. As he explains, the possible excess of new apartments for sale in times of economic slowdown is the biggest bane of the development industry. It is thanks to him that there is a “domino effect” and a market collapse.
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Prices still high
Concerns about demand may be justified, especially as developers are not getting ready for “difficult” times. From the July report by money.pl and Rynek Primary website shows that prices are rising again in Warsaw, Kraków, Poznań and Łódź. Only in Wrocław prices practically did not move, and in Gdańsk they fell.
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In Warsaw and Krakow there was a strong increase in the rates of new apartments by nearly 3%. This is a significant increase in the scale of one month.
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Despite high prices, the real estate market is perceived as a safe haven for capital. It is supported by the lowest interest rates in history and fears of inflation.
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– Even the situation on the rental market does not change it – objectively worse than a year ago. The point is that due to the fact that some economic immigrants have left Poland and the university has switched to remote learning, many premises have been vacated – notes the HRE Investments analyst.
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– And although immigrants return to the country, the uncertainty as to what the education will look like in the next academic year means that so far there are less people willing to live than a year ago. However, it must be remembered that students are only a part of tenants, occupying about 10-25 percent. apartments for rent – adds the analyst.
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However, he emphasizes that from the investors’ point of view, buying a flat for rent is still an interesting idea. – Taking into account the rental rates and purchase prices, today the profitability of renting a studio apartment in Warsaw can be estimated at around 4.2 percent. And it’s already net, i.e. after deducting costs, taking into account the fact that the premises is not rented all year round and the fact that you have to pay tax on the rental income. A year ago it was 4.7 percent. – evaluates the analyst.
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yesterday (21:40)
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