Real Estate Confidence Index in 2013 moves in response to economic recovery

Mr. Wichai Wiratkaphan Acting Director of Real Estate Information Center The Government Housing Bank said that the confidence index of residential development business operators in Bangkok-perimeter in the overall picture for the next 6 months (Expectations Index) or in the first half of 2023 was equal to 60.5, an increase from the previous quarter. Which is at the level of 57.9 and the index is higher than the mean level of 50.0, reflecting that entrepreneurs have increased confidence in their positive outlook on the real estate situation.

But when considering the confidence in each aspect, it was found that Confidence has increased in investment, employment, operating costs. and opening of new projects and/or new phases An increase of between 2.4 and 4.9 units was likely a result of the overall economic recovery affected by the expansion of the tourism sector. which will receive important supporting factors from China’s opening up from the 8th day Last Jan.

However, it was found that the results of operations and sales “reduce”QoQ -2.1 and -3.0 units respectively This may be due to the Bank of Thailand not renewing the relaxation of the LTV measure that ended on December 31, 2022, and the reduction of the ownership transfer fee from 2% to 1%, which was previously reduced to 0.01% during 2020-2021

When classifying entrepreneurs by type of company, it was found that the group Listed Companies The confidence index for the next 6 months was 61.2, a slight decrease from the previous quarter, which was at 61.8, indicating that developers still have confidence in the real estate business. However, only the operating results and sales were significantly less than the previous quarter.

Real Estate Confidence Index in 2013 moves in response to economic recovery

While the operator group Non-listed Companies The index was 59.3, an increase from the previous quarter, which was at 52.1, indicating that entrepreneurs in the Non-listed Companies group began to have increased confidence from such positive factors, especially confidence in Performance, sales, investment, launch of new projects and/or new phases

Sentiment Index of Residential Development Business Entrepreneurs in Bangkok – Vicinity In the current situation (Current Situation Index) in the overview of the 4th quarter of 2022 The index was 51.5, slightly down from the previous quarter (QoQ) with the index of 51.8 and the single period of the year (YoY) with the index of 52.0, but still above the median level of 50.0.

Real Estate Confidence Index in 2013 moves in response to economic recovery

However, the index of confidence dropped slightly this quarter. When considering the source of the decrease, it was found that Confidence in performance, sales, employment and launches of new projects and/or new phases. declined between -1.7 to -2.3 units, which may be a result of the upward trend in domestic interest rates.

In the fourth quarter of 2022, there was an increase in interest rates of the MPC in the near future, on September 28, 2022 and November 30, 2022.

Real Estate Confidence Index in 2013 moves in response to economic recovery

While confidence in investment and operating costs increased from 1.8 and 4.4 units, respectively, reflecting that Residents of the residential development business in Bangkok and its vicinity remain confident in investing in residential development continuously in 2023.

When classifying the sentiment by group of entrepreneurs, it was found that the confidence in the current situation of the group entrepreneurs Listed Companies In the fourth quarter of 2022, the index was 55.2, lower than the previous quarter’s index of 58.0, driven by confidence in operating results, sales, employment and new project launches and/or new phases. But still higher than the median level of 50.0, showing that the Listed Companies have confidence in the business in the current situation.

While the confidence of group operators Non-listed Companies The confidence index was 46.0, an increase from the previous quarter, which was at 42.6, and was an increase in confidence in all aspects. Although it is still below the median level of 50.0, it shows that non-listed companies are still more concerned about this negative factor than Listed Companies, but they have begun to ease some concerns.

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