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Putin’s dreams of an early takeover of Ukraine have failed, the Russian dictator changes the plan

After plans A and B of the Russian invasion of Ukraine failed, Russia is forced to modify its plan C due to military defeats. Former Australian general Mick Ryan predicts that the war will develop into a “long-term campaign”. But what will all these Russian tactical changes really mean?

As writes Focusafter the scene of hostilities on Ukrainian territory, the Russian command announced positive results, contrary to all reports of heavy losses in the Russian army.

“In general, the main tasks of the first stage of the operation have been completed,” said Sergey Rudskoy, First Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces.

He added that after the “completion of the main offensive”, efforts will now be focused on the main goal of Russian aggression, namely the “liberation” of Donbass. But according to former Australian Army General Mick Ryan, these tactical changes are just an expanded Plan B.

Plan A failed in the first 48 hours after the start of a full-scale war against Ukraine. In fact, Russia wanted to use its ground and air forces in “light” strength, hoping to capture Kyiv and other important points, as well as arrest President Volodymyr Zelensky, Prime Minister Denis Shmygal and other members of the government. Russia hoped that this would be able to force Ukraine to surrender and seek a political solution.

But plan “A” failed in the following way: due to the powerful resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the weakness of the Russian army, Russia was forced to change tactics very quickly.

So Plan B was born. He envisioned more air strikes, the destruction of small towns, and more intense shelling of civilian infrastructure.

“Plan B” assumed that the Russian Aerospace Forces would finally show themselves,” Ryan said.

But Moscow actually had only ground forces at its disposal, drawn up to the borders of Ukraine before the invasion. These troops were thrown into battle “without any general coordination.” They randomly began to advance from the north, east and south. And the Russian command hoped that this mess would somehow bring “victory”. Obviously, there was no single command center that led the entire operation. So Moscow had to coordinate with several generals on the ground.

So Plan B failed like this: as soon as such a large army ran out of fuel, ammunition and food, it immediately lost its military advantage. Russia suffered heavy losses. On Friday, Moscow announced that 1351 had died on the battlefield. Another 3,825 soldiers were wounded. Ukraine, on the other hand, is talking about 16,000 dead Russian soldiers. And this is a much larger figure than the one that Russia calls. US intelligence has counted about 7 thousand deaths among the Russian military. NATO also says that the Russian army lost 40 thousand soldiers, taking into account the dead, wounded or missing.

“Russia has sacrificed so many lives for petty territorial gains,” Ryan says.

So Moscow moved on to Plan B about a week ago, which made the war even more brutal. Cities such as Kharkiv, Mariupol and Chernihiv are being shelled from a distance, completely destroying the infrastructure. But the original plan “B” also failed. The Ukrainian army did not give up. She continued to ambush logistical convoys, which led to a shortage of soldiers and the loss of necessary allowances. The Russian army is too slow, exhausted and unsuccessful. She didn’t reach her goals. Russia is desperately trying to “seize Mariupol in order to pass it off as a victory.” The battle for the city continues.

“Obviously, they overestimated their ability to take Kyiv. In truth, they overestimated their ability to occupy any densely populated center. Nobody was ready for Ukrainian resistance,” the Pentagon analysis says.

Now Putin needs a “modified” plan “B”. Western military experts say the Russian army is reacting to the failure of the offensive against Kyiv, Kharkov and Nikolaev. According to Ryan, Russia has already resigned itself to the fact that the war will not be short. Rudskoy said that “the first stage is completed.” However, he did not specify how many such stages there will be.

What could happen next? Ryan explains that Russia will have to mobilize personnel and military industry to compensate for the loss of weapons, ammunition and equipment. In addition, she can focus on one front, redirecting combat-ready units and artillery to achieve greater tactical success. Given the strikes on the city of Dnipro, as well as some successes near Luhansk and Donetsk, this front is likely to be the east. There were also indications that the Russian Aerospace Forces increased the number of daily sorties last week. Putin can remove the highest level military command to shift the blame. At the same time, he will need a commander-in-chief of operations in Ukraine. According to Ryan, Russia is adapting at the cost of big military mistakes. And, most likely, it will move on to a rethought long-term war.

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