Belarusian President Lukashenko bows his head after the ongoing protests. Only he does not do this to the protesting population, but to the president of Russia. It should help him to get rid of the protests.
“That support from Moscow does not come without a price”, says Tony van der Togt. As an Eastern Europe expert, he is affiliated with the Clingendael Institute in The Hague.
“Lukashenko hopes with the Russian support to strengthen his position in his own country. It is still unclear what exactly the support will look like. But it is certain that Lukashenko will relinquish part of his power.”
Images of goons
It is a moment in a struggle that never seems to end. Because, like the protests, Lukashenko’s crackdown does not end.
Last weekend, fierce images came out of demonstrators being tackled harshly by mysterious gangs.
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But the blows seem to motivate the protesters rather than deter them. More and more people took to the streets, causing Lukashenko’s position to become increasingly shaky. So yours even workers of a state factory him out hard.
“Putin also saw this and therefore supported Lukashenko in recent weeks,” explains Tony van der Togt. “He made sure that the Belarusian journalists, who refused to work any longer, were replaced by Russian ones. And he promised to intervene with a police force if the demonstrations turned into major riots.”
Give up power
But those threats did not bring peace back to Belarus. In an extreme attempt to remain in power, Lukashenko enlists further help from Russia with today’s visit.
This meeting builds on a meeting in 1999. Lukashenko was also in Russia then to discuss closer cooperation. Press agency AP made images of the interview about the formation of a union state with then president Boris Yeltsin.
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But that meeting only produced a symbolic agreement between the two countries. Lukashenko feared that closer cooperation with Russia would put his own position at risk. He therefore regularly turned his gaze for trade to the West.
And according to Van der Togt, Putin certainly did not thank him for that. “To put pressure on Lukashenko, he recently replaced the oil and gas rebate for Belarus with a tax. The amount depended on the extent to which the two countries would continue to cooperate.”
No other choice
According to him, Putin can now demand a lot more because Lukashenko is the demanding party. “He has his back to the wall and has no choice. The integration that Russia wants will therefore undoubtedly come.”
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That seems to be happening in the form of a union state. Belarus is thus giving away much of its independence. In this way there can be a joint parliament and a shared currency. A loss for Lukashenko but a win for Moscow, Van der Togt explains.
“Such a union state is very important to Putin because he uses it to build up his position of power. Belarus has a crucial location between Russia and Europe. He is now certain that it will remain his ally without having to engage militarily for it. grab.”
Find connection
Due to the enormous demonstrations, Lukashenko himself seems to have changed his position. “We are going to defend the common homeland of our peoples,” said the President of Belarus know recently. “The homeland that reaches from Brest to Vladivostok.” So from Belarus to Russia.
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It thus seems that Lukashenko will remain the president of Belarus for the time being. And with that, protesters do not get the so hoped-for change of power. “Putin who will be calling the shots in the background is not, in my opinion, the development that Belarusians have been taking to the streets for weeks.”
According to the Russia expert, some of the protesters have recently been making anti-Russian sounds more often. “Those protesters see the support that Lukashenko is now receiving from Putin as a sale of his own interests. And therefore by no means a guarantee that he will leave.”
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