NOS | Helen Kret
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News from the NOS•today, 16:06•Modified today, 16:42
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The measures that the government will present on Tuesday, budget day, will most likely have a positive effect on purchasing power for the next year. But they will not fully compensate for the decline in purchasing power over the course of this year. This is evident from the Prinsjesdag documents which are in the hands of the NOS.
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The Central Planning Bureau recently assumed a 0.6% increase in purchasing power over this year for 2023. According to the CPB, this will be 3.9% after the measures. There are, however, many uncertainties.
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“The war casts a shadow ahead”
In his own words, the government has been able to do a lot, but it cannot completely remove the consequences of inflation. The measures are of historic magnitude, the memorandum states. “At the same time, our moderation is appropriate. The war on the European continent will cast its shadow and will have far-reaching consequences also in our country”, writes the government in the preface.
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he was al leaked that the government is allocating billions to “bolster” purchasing power. For example, the minimum wage will increase by 10 percent next year and the reduction in fuel excise duties will continue for the time being. The package of measures is worth € 15.9 billion.
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The decline in purchasing power this year
The CPB still estimates a 6.8 percent drop in purchasing power for this year. This has not changed from the previous estimate.
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The figures are therefore surrounded by many uncertainties, now that prices are on the rise and above all it is not clear how energy rates will develop. The government is still negotiating with energy companies, which means purchasing power may still change. According to insiders, the uncertainty about how the figures will go in specific cases is greater than ever. This is also related to when people (can) adjust their energy contract.
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Poverty
An important factor in the CPB figures is the number of people living in poverty. According to the previous estimate, without government measures, 7.6 percent of the population would fall below the poverty line next year. After the measures announced by the government next week, the CPB assumes this will drop to 4.9%. The number of children in poverty would be 6.7%.
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According to data from the Central Planning Bureau, the economy will grow by 1.5% next year. In the previous estimate, this was still 1.1%. The CPB expects 4.6 percent growth for this year. Cabinet accountants are also predicting inflation of 2.6 percent next year (previous calculation 4.3 percent) and 9.9 percent this year.
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