40-44 percent for Andrzej Duda, 28-32 percent for Rafał Trzaskowski. Such results are predicted by PiS and PO staffs in the first round of presidential elections. The power camp is reconciled with the fact that the incumbent head of state will not be able to get re-elected this Sunday. But Duda intends to fight to the end.
Thursday. The presidential plane returning from Washington before noon lands at Okecie. Andrzej Duda straight from the airport he rushes to the Presidential Palace, where he will meet with the largest American investors in Poland. After that, he will organize a conference, hold a briefing with colleagues and will start meeting the voters in Radom the same day.
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There he will give one of the strongest speeches in recent days. He will tell about the rate of these choices, outline the main axis of the dispute before the first round and hit the biggest rival.
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“There is no more determined politician in our camp today than Andrzej,” says one of the president’s associates, Virtual Poland. – He is bursting with energy, he would like to do five things at once. This campaign mega turns him on – convinces our interlocutor.
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Just a few months ago, Duda believed that he would manage to get re-elected in the first round. The exchange of Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska and entry into the election game Rafał Trzaskowski verified these plans.
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Presidential election 2020. Surveys: opposition supporters more mobilized
Today, the president’s staff – as indicated by those working on the campaign – is fighting for the greatest mobilization of voters of the United Right and the demobilization of opposition supporters. PiS politicians estimate that with a turnout lower than 60 percent in the second round of elections on July 12, Duda will win against Trzaskowski.
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Except that – according to many forecasts – the turnout in this year’s presidential election may be the highest in history. And if it exceeds 60 percent in the second round – and will reach even 65 percent – it will start working in favor of the opposition candidate.
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The power camp is therefore trying to demobilize those voters who are not necessarily standing behind the wall today, but in the second round they would be willing to support him. IN IBRIS survey for WP KO could vote for 70% in the second round Kosiniak-Kamysz voters, 74 percent Hołownia voters and as much as 97 percent voters Robert Biedronia.
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Only this game is risky – trying to politically abhor Trzaskowski in the eyes of a moderate electorate, PiS – along with the entire propaganda machine – by the way mobilizes die-hard supporters of the candidate Civic Coalition and opposition in general. This mobilization was lacking in the anti-PiS camp even on the occasion of the elections to The European Parliament last year.
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Today, however, the situation is different: according to our information, internal research of the Civic Platform shows that Trzaskowski’s supporters are today the most mobilized to vote in the elections (as much as 96%). Among PiS voters, this mobilization is smaller today: only 85 percent of them – if you believe the research – are ready to “definitely go to the elections”. Hence, pro-turnout events, organized by the government just before the election “battle for fire trucks” in municipalities up to 20,000 residents.
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– If they were sure of mobilization in small towns and in the countryside, they would not have to do any “wagon battles” – say our interlocutors from around Trzaskowski’s staff.
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Until recently, some PiS politicians spread rumors that Andrzej Duda could count on 46 percent in internal, unpublished studies. support, and the missing 4-5 percent will give him a visit to Donald Trump in the first round of elections. Today we know that the Polish president’s departure to the United States will not change the electoral landscape, although the head of state staff visits – at least officially – are considered successful.
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Indeed, the mobilization of the electorate will not translate either Wednesday speech by Jarosław Kaczyńskithat everyone has already forgotten, and many did not notice at all.
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See also: “Duda is weakening”. Hołownia has its own polls
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Presidential election 2020. Andrzej Duda’s black dream and a chance for Rafał Trzaskowski
The fact is that last week in internal polls of the PiS staff (which the ruling party does every day, taking into account greater than before the urban voters) Duda clearly exceeded 40 percent. Later, however, lost several points again, returning to the threshold of 40 percent. Among others hence the decision to use the president’s authority and charisma on the last episode of the campaign to mobilize PiS voters. Is it effective? Probably not.
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Today, representatives of the power camp estimate that their presidential candidate will “fit” in the first round in the 40-44 percent range. support.
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There is no chance of winning in the first round Duda – that’s why part of the president’s staff listens to the curves of some PiS politicians who are already convincing – or even bet with journalists – that their candidate will cross the magical limit of 50% on June 28. support and sweep Trzaskowski into dust. It won’t be like that.
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Aware of the situation, PiS politicians know that the worst-case scenario for Andrzej Duda is that Rafał Trzaskowski breaks the 30 percent barrier. support and reducing the distance to the head of state. This would raise the hopes of opposition supporters and mobilize them in the second round. And this means a serious threat to PiS – analysts note.
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People against the power camp – if the difference between Duda and Trzaskowski in the first round were less than 10 percentage points – would finally really believe that the president can be beaten. In another case – when Trzaskowski would achieve a result worse than 30 percent on 28 June. – the enthusiasm and morale of the opposition voters could decrease, translating into a lower than expected turnout in extra time on July 12. To put it simply: if Trzaskowski does not do well in the first round, then – as PiS counts – opposition supporters instead of going to polling stations on July 12, will go on vacation.
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The black vision of PiS staff is a drop in support for the PiS candidate below 40 percent. in the first round of elections. It is unlikely today, but still real. If this dangerous scenario comes to pass, the results of the second round – which few people write about – can be decided by the voices of Poles living abroad. Most of them will probably stand behind Trzaskowski (except for Polonia in the USA).
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In addition, it is the candidate of the Civic Coalition – as his staff members say – that he has the greatest capacity to mobilize new supporters. If opposition voters who today support Hołownia, Biedronia or Kosiniak see that Trzaskowski – by shortening the distance to Duda in the first round of elections – has a real chance to beat the PiS candidate in the second round of July 12, without much hesitation. And this is what PiS is afraid of.
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That is why the results in the first round of the election will be so important. This one will take place this Sunday.
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Do you have news? Let me know on happi.wp.pl. We are waiting for photos, recordings and information
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