Presidential election 2020. Prof. Chwedoruk: Bosak’s voters will decide more than Hołownia

The difference between the main candidates is arithmetically visible, but politically – it’s a draw – says Interia prof. Rafał Chwedoruk from the University of Warsaw, commenting on the results of the first round of presidential elections.

What is the potential background of Andrzej Duda and Rafał Trzaskowski now?

– The first question is – will there be voters who did not appear today at the polls and are willing to do it in two weeks. This has happened before. Let us remind you that five years ago in the second round there were significantly more voters than in the first. So, the more there are today, the less it will be captured later – says prof. Rafał Chwedoruk.

– The second issue is voters who achieved a high score but did not make it to the second round. In the case of Szymon Hołownia, it is known that the absolute majority of them will vote for Rafał Trzaskowski. The most important question here is to what extent Andrzej Duda’s staff will be able to discourage them from going to elections.

According to prof. Chwedórka, in the case of Krzysztof Bosak, the matter is more complicated.

– They are most often young voters, politically socialized, who will rather allergically accept any attempts to mobilize them “from above” and who do not quite find themselves in the PiS dispute with the Platform – says the political scientist and adds: – I have no doubt that the core of ultra-right voters who is not numerous, about 100,000 people will be closer to Duda, but many people with a libertarian view of the economy can vote very differently. Suffice it to recall that in 2010, contrary to Janusz Korwin-Mikke, most of his voters voted for Bronisław Komorowski.

Therefore, according to prof. Chwedoruka, however, voters of Bosak and the Confederation will be more important than Hołownia.

– There are also the melting resources of the weakest candidates from this basic group. Few voters of Robert Biedroń will certainly vote for Trzaskowski. In the case of Kosiniak-Kamysz, I think that both main forces have already won the voters they were supposed to get from this formation. It should no longer be that important – says Interia, prof. Chwedoruk.

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