Opinion | COP 26 in the shadow of China-US tensions

Since his election, President Joe Biden has confirmed his intentions to respond to China’s growing influence. For its part, China had already said that it would be difficult to hope for a coalition for the climate given the growing tensions with the United States, especially in the Asia-Pacific zone. Recent statements by the US president that the United States would come to defend Taiwan in the event of an armed invasion of China, although partly contradicted by the White House, have further fueled these tensions, and risk very tangibly. weaken the negotiations at the decisive summit of COP 26.

This international negotiation aims first to take stock of the situation five years after the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement at COP21. Although the States have not achieved the objectives they set themselves, COP 26 must also make it possible to revise upwards the ambition to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, to increase funding for developing countries and finally to strengthen adaptation measures to deal with the consequences – already present – of climate change.

Cooperation difficult, but necessary

Remember, China and the United States are the biggest emitters of CO2, together producing nearly half of global emissions. The United States is trying to make up for the time lost by the Trump administration and demonstrate a return to credible leadership on this subject of the fight against climate change. China stepped up its commitment by announcing the end of its international funding for coal-fired power plants last month. While their measures remain insufficient, it is now time for the two powers to align not only with their commitments, but more concretely with their actions.

In the short term, close cooperation would make it possible to take the strong measures necessary to maximize international investments and financing in favor of a transition to low-carbon energy in developing countries. It would also make it possible to put in place concrete actions aimed at decarbonizing economies. In the longer term, a China-US coalition could significantly advance global climate ambition for mitigation, adaptation and support for developing countries.

Climate: collateral victim

Nonetheless, the heightened Sino-American rivalry clearly thwarts the goal of an explicit agreement between the two nations. Still, both countries would have a lot to gain. The Biden administration, which finds itself struggling to get the $ 3 trillion stimulus package – the backbone of its climate plan – approved – could benefit from a boost in confidence and credibility with its partners and allies. Under Trump’s mandate, China was able to take advantage of its “good student” posture vis-à-vis the United States. The return of the United States to the fight against climate change should encourage China to increase its measures in order to maintain its “proactive” image.

Without a clear and concrete collaboration, the United States and China find themselves confronted with a “prisoner’s dilemma” which can only be lose-lose in the medium to long term. Although they have a common interest in cooperating to reduce their emissions and avoid a climatic runaway, the two countries are individually tempted to maximize their economic, diplomatic and military interests in the short term, for lack of guarantee of the actions of the other party. The social optimum, that is to say climatic stability, cannot be achieved under these conditions.

Discern cooperative competition

It is time to recognize once and for all the primacy of the climate issue over geopolitical and economic disputes. Without a political will for cooperation, the ambition of other countries will necessarily be degraded, leaving more ground for countries more resistant to policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is therefore important, logically and symbolically, that China and the United States, today the biggest contributors to climate change, serve as examples, but even more as an engine. It seems futile to list, once again, the extent of the impacts of climate change and the loss of biodiversity, they are so colossal. However, it is essential to remember that the environmental and climatic issues far exceed inter-state rivalries since they affect the living conditions of the human species on this planet, and perhaps its survival.

Adrien Bolgert and Mathilde Robinet are students at the Climate School (Columbia University) in New York.

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