in past days we have repeatedly indicated the probability that the markets could start a 3/5% retracement. Yesterday’s bargaining closings gave a downward trend today. But what to wait from now on? We are between 3 and 5% on average from the highs recently touched by all international markets. Is this movement enough or is the danger still evident and could there be further strong falls?
Our view is as follows: it is now also possible to pick up prices for the equity markets.
Let’s proceed step by step and explain the reasons.
Several times in the past weeks, the markets have tested important resistance that have blocked prices and the rise started from the lows of March.
How should the retracement movement started by recent highs be cataloged? We clear the field immediately by stating that we do not see any danger of sharp falls between now and October / first ten days of November, the time zone in which the annual highs should form.
Forecast fractal on a weekly scale from 1 January to 30 December 2020
In blue graph of the World Stock Exchanges until week number 29 (last week)
In red our annual forecast
As you can see at the moment, our forecasts show no danger of falling above 3/5% in the coming days.
Now it is also possible to pick up prices for the equity markets
But what are the dangers that could loom on the horizon?
Only below the following levels in the weekly closing can we really start to evaluate the hypothesis of a strong fall that would go as far as our forecast until December 30 this year:
Dax Future
Eurostoxx Future
3.373
Ftse Mib Future
20.525
S&P 500
3.247
So how to behave?
The levels we touched this morning could also be bullish. We will therefore await the following developments for further evaluation:
a) whether or not the retracement will continue;
b) where it will find support and / or resistance;
c) whether or not a bullish swing will form.
We do not deny that this morning may already be a restart. The answer from today’s closing and Monday’s. At the moment it is recommended to carry out only intraday trading and scalping operations pending developments as indicated
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