“The apocalypse is being postponed and it is visible. The number of cases is not rising sharply“This was said in an interview with BNR by the mathematician from BAS, Prof. Nikolay Vitanov.
According to him, the basic reproductive number for the spread of coronavirus today is 1.15, which it is good news because it is below 1.3 and so it has been since the beginning of the week.
The numbers are not encouraging, but Omicron is fighting for dominance, Vitanov explained. According to him, there is another week before the new version becomes dominant.
“It simply came to our notice then joint distribution of Omicron and Delta in Bulgaria and it can be seen from the mortality data. If Omicron was dominant in this number of cases, mortality should have been lower by 10-15 cases. Which shows that the Delta option is still working. “
“What will happen as the maximum values of this wave will be at the end of January – beginning of February. In the first half of February we can already expect a drop in the wave“, Nikolay Vitanov thinks.
5,703 new cases of coronavirus, 5,257 people are in hospital
The share of positive samples is 19.1%
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With Omicron, the criterion must be changed, because there are a large number of infected people, but they do not fill the hospitals as fast as the Delta version, the mathematician noted.
The new criterion will not require a lockdown if the occupancy of intensive beds does not exceed 80%. The areas will be clustered up to 6, so that when the intensive beds in one of them run out, new such cases should be redirected to an area of the same cluster, where there are free beds so as not to close the whole area, Nikolay Vitanov also pointed out the intentions of the government to change the approach to managing the health crisis.
According to him, that is why currently the percentage of filled intensive care beds in Sofia is “37 and something”, not 60, because instead of the maximum possible number, a calculation is announced according to the current number of intensive beds.
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