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Nicaragua’s unclear future – focus on Latin America

Managua’s former auxiliary bishop Silvio Baez draws a realistic conclusion from his “exile”: The efforts made so far to bring about change have proven to be inadequate, quoted the portal “100 percent Noticias” Baez a few days ago. The popular bishop in Nicaragua is once again the subject of speculation.

Since a position at the head of the Esteli diocese will soon be vacant in the crisis-ridden country, Bishop Juan Abelardo Mata (74), who is retiring there, brought Baez, who was recalled abroad by Pope Francis after death threats in 2019, into play. But priest Miguel Mantica from the parish of San Francisco de Asis gives the faithful little hope that 62-year-old Baez will return.

Little hope of free elections

The Pope wanted to avoid a martyrdom similar to that experienced by Archbishop Oscar Romero, who has now been canonized in El Salvador and who was shot by right-wing paramilitaries in 1980. There have also been death threats against Baez in recent years, so that Francis withdrew him from Nicaragua. However, there were also voices in the opposition there that said Francis had a certain sympathy for the left-wing Sandinista regime.

The Baez case shows: Nothing is currently more unclear in Nicaragua than the future. A few months before the elections, there are international protests from human rights organizations, the United Nations, the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights and the Catholic Church. They are all calling for a reform of the electoral law that should enable transparent and fair voting.

The most prominent warning is UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet. At the end of February, she declared that the government must use effective reforms and dialogue to launch credible, peaceful and transparent elections. But so far the regime of President Daniel Ortega and his wife and Vice President Rosario Murillo has not moved. On the contrary, the situation for the opposition became even worse.

The allegations are immense. A new law forbids so-called traitors from running for or holding public office. Who exactly is a “traitor” or what constitutes a betrayal remains to be seen. However, it is precisely this discretion that makes it possible for a government-affiliated judiciary or the government to withdraw promising opposition candidates from circulation at short notice. It’s not even clear who actually decides who is a “traitor”.

Jose Miguel Vivanco, America Director of Human Rights Watch, is correspondingly pessimistic: “With this law there is little to no hope of free and fair elections in Nicaragua.” The country’s Catholic Bishops’ Conference sees it similarly: An electoral reform is urgent, “so that we do not get caught up in another fraud”.

Violence against political opponents

Independent observers are not only concerned about the lack of framework conditions for fair elections. The Inter-American Human Rights Commission CIDH recently condemned the violent repression by security forces against non-governmental organizations; international press associations criticize open threats and violence against journalists. In addition, the opposition has not yet given a unified picture.

All of this is the continuation of a crisis that has now lasted almost three years in the Central American country. In 2018, Nicaragua saw the start of national protests against the government of President Ortega. Around 350 people have died since the beginning; Thousands were injured.

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