– Good and tough negotiations, as always. But this year, we must stand up for those at risk of losing their jobs since.
MAJORSTUEN (Nettavisen Økonomi): There will be no salary increase this year if NHO boss Ole Erik Almlid gets what he wants.
A unanimous Board of Representatives in the NHO decided before the weekend to go for a zero settlement – this means that all sectors agree on the recommendation.
On Monday, Almlid and the NHO’s chief economist gave an account of the background for the game, which came over a month before the negotiations themselves began – on 3 August, the Norwegian Industry and the Commonwealth will meet to negotiate what is called the front subjects.
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These are the industrial negotiations, and the central settlement in the front subjects is normally the governing body for the subsequent settlements. This is called the front science model.
– We stand shoulder to shoulder with those who are laid off or standing without a job. One wants to boost inflation by having a higher settlement. It is therefore very important that you now stand by the frontline model, says Almlid.
– Zero gives rise to pay!
The NHO boss believes that a zero settlement will ensure that purchasing power is maintained. According to updated forecasts from the Technical Calculation Committee (which always forms the premise for wage negotiations, editorial notes), inflation in 2020 will be 1.2 per cent.
This corresponds to the so-called lag – the increase in wages in the current year from last year’s wage settlement.
– Thus, we maintain purchasing power with a zero settlement. It is really very good in a crisis year! says Almlid.
Almlid strongly urges that there be a zero settlement also in local wage negotiations, and in both the private and public sectors.
– We believe in wage formation and the Norwegian model. Then we must have zero central and zero in local supplements. The front subject model is up for exams this year, says the NHO boss.
He points out that there have been zero settlements in the past as well, and that LO and NHO agreed on this by 2015 at the latest.
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Rejects conflict danger
The leader of the joint federation Jørn Eggum stated to TV2 Friday that it was premature to go out before the negotiations and instruct the parties to negotiate.
– I don’t understand. We have a power of attorney on how to negotiate. We received a new authorization now just before the summer. It is important to say this now. Good and tough negotiations, as always. But this year we must stand up for those who are at risk of losing their jobs since, says Almlid to Nettavisen.
– Is there a danger of strikes, with such a starting point?
– Almost others must answer. But I don’t think this is the year of having a conflict. This is the year to stand up for those who are working. All parties that are part of the fron- ticular model are very keen to land this so that we do not make it worse for companies and workplaces. So I can’t imagine a conflict this year. We will not make this worse by increasing wages so that people do not get back to work, Almlid tells Nettavisen.
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LO’s first deputy leader Peggy Hessen Feelsvik comments on NHO’s statements as follows:
– These are known measures from the NHO in advance of a wage settlement. We are fully aware of the situation in the labor market. There is also the Commonwealth, it is those who negotiate with Norsk Industri about how value creation in their areas should be distributed. That front subject comes to the frame for the rest of the working life.
BACKGROUND: – Regardless of the projections, the international economy will have a cooling down this year, next year and probably several years to come, says Øystein Dørum, chief economist at NHO, about the projections for economic development in the future.
Photo: Morten Solli
– Better, but not good
NHO’s chief economist Øystein Dørum on Monday elaborated on the reason for the claim from the employer organization.
– Since the overhang represents 20 per cent of wage growth, we get a real wage growth of 1.2 per cent with no additional costs, while we also have 1.2 per cent price growth – this gives unchanged purchasing power in the worst crisis year since the war, emphasizes Dørum.
At most, in April, there were a total of 435,000 unemployed in Norway. Of these, 140,000 are now back in work. But the curve now flattens out and the road back to work goes slower. The NHO estimates that the effects of the corona crisis will last for several years.
– The wage settlement must enable the companies to bring labor back to the companies. Then we have to distinguish between change and level: the change is in a positive direction, and it looks better, but not good. Around half of the companies still believe that they have a sales failure directly or indirectly caused by the corona crisis, says Dørum.
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In the aviation, tourism and transport sectors, it is even worse: more than 50 per cent of businesses report that they still have a turnover loss of over 50 per cent, NHO figures show.
– Norwegian exports hit hard
Dörum also showed other forecasts that projected a decline in international GDP of between 6.5 and 7.5 per cent.
– A chill in the international economy is extremely important – many have the difficult times ahead. The front subjects therefore have a very important task. Regardless of the projections, the international economy will suffer a cooling down this year, next year and probably several years to come, says Dørum.
The industry is hit hard, such as the automotive industry, which has sold 80 percent fewer cars than at the same time in 2019.
– This is of great importance to our export industry, as a sub-supplier to the automotive industry, among others, says Almlid.
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