The True Covid Death Toll in the US May Be Underestimated by at Least 16%
Researchers Discover Covid Death Undercounting Beyond Overloaded Health Systems
Wed 21 Feb 2024 16.00 CET
According to a new study conducted by researchers, the actual Covid death toll in the US is likely to be at least 16% higher than the official figure. The study suggests that the undercounting of Covid deaths is not solely due to overloaded health systems but is also influenced by a lack of awareness of Covid and low levels of testing.
The study found that the second year of the pandemic had nearly as many uncounted excess deaths as the first. Despite official records indicating that over 1.1 million Americans have died from Covid, the actual number is believed to be higher due to the significant rates of excess deaths.
Researchers delved into county-level data to identify patterns in geography and time in order to understand the extent of undercounted Covid deaths. Between March 2020 and August 2022, an estimated 1.2 million excess deaths from natural causes occurred, and approximately 163,000 of those deaths were not attributed to Covid, even though the researchers argue they should have been. This raises questions about why these extra deaths happened and how they were not recognized as being related to Covid.
The researchers expected to see deaths peaking at the height of major surges or shortly thereafter, but they found that excess deaths began to rise in the month leading up to these surges. This suggests that some individuals were unaware that their illnesses were Covid-related due to a lack of awareness about the prevalence of the virus and limited testing. The rise in out-of-hospital deaths in homes and nursing homes, where determining the cause of death is more challenging, further complicates the accurate reporting of Covid deaths.
Contrary to previous research, which indicated that under-reporting of Covid deaths mainly occurred in the early months of the pandemic, the study reveals that surveillance gaps persisted throughout the first 30 months of the pandemic.
Marked regional variations in under-counting were evident, with non-metropolitan counties in the West and the South suffering the most. These areas faced challenges with investigating deaths and conducting adequate testing for Covid. State-level policies, variations in how jurisdictions count Covid deaths, and the politicization of the crisis at the local level may have influenced the cause of death stated on certificates, contributing to differences in reporting.
Overall, this study underscores the urgent need for more comprehensive and timely mortality reporting in the US. These accurate mortality rates are vital for authorities to distribute resources, including vaccines, treatments, and healthcare workers, to the most severely affected populations and regions. Furthermore, understanding the true death toll of Covid and the reasons behind under-counting will inform the current response to infectious diseases and prepare us to face future pandemics more effectively.
“What does it take to be able to respond to a disaster as it’s unfolding?” questions Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, one of the study’s authors. It is crucial to identify the areas and policies that failed in keeping people alive during the pandemic in order to improve crisis response for future emergencies.
