ANP
NOS Nieuws•vandaag, 13:58
In 2050, the Netherlands will be busier, grayer and more diverse than now, and moderating migration and better distribution of the limited space is necessary. The state committee on Demographic Developments 2050 has reached these conclusions.
More guidance is needed, the committee believes, because the Netherlands is one of the countries with the strongest population growth in Europe and also one of the most densely populated countries, where the pace of population growth in particular poses problems.
“Choose moderate growth that does not demand too much,” explains Richard van Zwol of the committee. “Growth that keeps the economy afloat and therefore ensures that education, healthcare and housing are available to everyone.”
Clear choices
The committee, whose members include scientists Paul Scheffer and Monika Sie Dhian Ho and politicians Marco Pastors and Tamara van Ark, advises politicians to focus more on which labor migrants are attracted.
In addition, all kinds of other buttons can be turned to cope with problems arising from simultaneous population growth and aging: ranging from more investment in the integration of newcomers to digitalization in healthcare and housing more communal living arrangements.
According to Van Zwol, the Netherlands must prevent population decline. “Shrinkage damages the economy and does not provide room for desired migration. Shrinkage also worsens the aging population. We also simply need the economy to be able to pay for education, healthcare and housing.”
NOS/CBS
The committee was established by the cabinet in July 2022 because there was a need for guidance on how to guide demographic issues such as aging and migration, a theme on which the Rutte IV cabinet was strongly divided. Ultimately, the cabinet fell over a conflict over limiting asylum migration.
The committee now recommends working with so-called ‘target values’ for population growth and looking further ahead than one cabinet term. Moderate growth to 19 or 20 million inhabitants by 2050 would be ideal, but to get there, politicians must quickly make clear choices.
Migration unpredictable
In the almost 400-page report, which discusses in detail the history and science of population development, these choices are only elaborated to a limited extent. It contains many options that have already been mentioned in previous reports.
The committee goes furthest with proposals that concern limiting low-quality labor migration, slowing down labor migration from new EU countries and a target figure for the net migration.
The committee does point out that steering migration is only possible to a limited extent. While aging is a trend that will certainly continue, migration is more unpredictable. According to the committee, hard targets or statements about when the Netherlands will be ‘full’ are also not useful, because technology and other developments can change all that. The Migration Advisory Council previously said that a target value for asylum migration is not desirable, but possibly for labor migration.
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NOS/CBS
Asylum migration is complicated to limit for humanitarian reasons, this committee also writes. Nevertheless, such a target value, in combination with taking population density into account, can help, for example, in discussions with the European Union about the distribution of asylum migrants. Moreover, most of the committee’s proposals on migration are aimed at labor migration.
Unchecked growth
The committee says it assumes that in 2050, 26 to 49 percent of the Dutch population will consist of first- and second-generation migrants. Now it is 25 percent. Population growth is desirable because the alternative, shrinkage or stagnation, would also increase the existing problems with aging and labor market shortages and would prevent economic growth.
Conversely, unchecked growth also brings problems: for example, rapid population growth is already causing problems with housing, social cohesion, for example in neighborhoods where migrant workers who have only been in the Netherlands for a short time live close together, and increasing pressure on facilities, such as education. and integration support.
The committee contradicts the often heard idea that problems with aging can all be solved through labor migration: migration actually puts pressure on services such as education and care, and migrants themselves grow older later on.
Different political constellation
The report is presented under a different political backdrop than when the committee began. The political parties that are now sitting around the table to see if they can form a new cabinet all support limiting migration. However, the question remains whether they will be willing to adopt all the committee’s recommendations.
Pieter Omtzigt of NSC will probably endorse the committee’s target figure. The advice boils down to what he also advocates: aiming for a moderate migration balance. The suggestion to choose more carefully which courses for international students are taught in English will also be welcomed.
But other recommendations, such as investing in employment and support in other countries, will probably receive less attention. According to the committee, this is necessary to support reception in the region, so that migration pressure decreases. But the VVD wants to make major cuts in development aid and the PVV even wants to get rid of it completely.
2024-01-15 12:58:32
#Advice #government #moderate #migration #prevent #population #decline
