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Municipalities in France: towards record abstention

LT he participation in the second round of municipal elections on Sunday has further decreased compared to the historic abstention rate recorded in the first round in March, marked by the Covid-19 epidemic, according to the first figures communicated.

The Interior Ministry reports an attendance rate at noon of 15.29%, three points below what it was at the same time on March 15 (18.38%), but also 4, 5 points below that of the second round of municipal elections in 2014 (19.83%), and more than 8 points less compared to 2008 (23.68%).

At polling station 104 located in a school in Old Lille, only 57 people had come to vote at 10:00 am, a participation of 5.7%, lower than that of the first round at the same time (8%).

The risk of a massive abstention of the 16.5 million voters called to vote in 4,820 communes (15% of the communes) on Sunday is one of the main issues in the poll, while less than one in two voters – 44, 3%, compared to 63.5% in 2014 – had moved to vote in the 1st round due to the risk of contamination with the coronavirus.

Suspense in some big cities

This second round is organized with exceptional health precautions due to the Covid-19 epidemic: wearing of a mandatory mask at polling stations, hydroalcoholic gel and priority for vulnerable people to vote.

The suspense is strong in some of the largest cities – Lyon, Marseille, Toulouse, Montpellier, Strasbourg, Lille … -, mainly under the pressure of environmentalists. In Le Havre, Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, who voted at 8:15 a.m., is also playing a role in Matignon.

These municipal elections are held on the eve of a crucial sequence for President Emmanuel Macron, who voted around noon in Le Touquet before treating himself to a crowd, without a mask. The head of state could, in the coming days, carry out a reshuffle and specify his stated intention to “reinvent himself” for the last two years of his mandate. As of Monday, he receives members of the Citizens’ Climate Convention at the Elysée Palace.

Meanwhile, voters were in no hurry at the polling stations, after a campaign mostly confined to social networks and the media. “There was too much time between the two rounds. People are outside this election, ”summarizes AFP Elisabeth Revel, president of polling station 18 in Dijon.

Among the rare voters who made the trip to the small school Joséphine Baker, Martine Legros is one of the unconditional ones: “I am aware of being part of the population at risk but if we follow the instructions, there is no worry. If we can go shopping, why can’t we go to vote? Says the 67-year-old voter.

Before going to spend the day at the beach with friends, Guy Palmarole went to vote early in Perpignan. “It’s weird to vote with a mask. It’s better without. I wonder how the person does to know if it’s really me. Soon we will come with the full-face helmet ”.

“I was more scared this morning going to the market to get my chicken,” adds Danka, a 44-year-old teacher.

Main innovation, of limited scope, to facilitate voting: the same proxy may have two proxies instead of one, to allow a larger number of people, especially the elderly, to vote without having to travel.

Hidalgo favorite à Paris

Unlike other major cities, there is little uncertainty in Paris, where outgoing Anne Hidalgo (PS) contained its EELV partners in the first round by endorsing a resolutely green program itself. With around 44% of voting intentions, it is well ahead of its competitors LR Rachida Dati and LREM Agnès Buzyn.

For La République en Marche, the day of the vote is that of the end of the ordeal: few of its candidates are well placed and the low-cost campaign has hardly allowed them to make themselves known.

In Le Havre, Edouard Philippe is credited with 53% of voting intentions (Ifop). But the importance of the stake can mobilize the abstainers of the first round.

Right and left to confirm, the Greens to break through

Very weakened at the national level, the Socialist Party and The Republicans have recovered their health locally. The PS is able to keep its bastions – Paris, Nantes, Rennes, Dijon – and should return to the level it was in after the loss of very many cities in 2014.

The Republicans confirmed their establishment by winning in the first round many of the cities with more than 9,000 inhabitants they controlled. But a defeat in Marseille, which the right has held for 25 years, or in Toulouse, the fourth city of France, would have a strong political resonance.

Among the major challenges of this election: the EELV candidates, driven by the environmentalist wave, are targeting several large cities, including Grenoble, Lyon, Strasbourg, Toulouse, Besançon. For the Greens, who have long served as an auxiliary force, it is also a question of asserting themselves as the first on the left before the next electoral deadlines.

In Marseille, the second largest city in France, the left created surprise by leading the 1st round with the Marseille Spring coalition, followed by Martine Vassal (LR) who was dubbed by outgoing Jean-Claude Gaudin.

Emmanuel Macron’s main opponent at the national level, the Rassemblement national transfers its hopes to Perpignan after a mixed first round. If successful, it would be the first city of more than 100,000 inhabitants controlled by the party since 1995.

“It’s a turning point … this time it’s going to be very fair,” predicts Karim, 59, a former PS activist, dreadlocks and a red t-shirt struck with his first name.

The municipal councilors, elected for six years, will then meet from Friday 3 to Sunday 5 July to elect the mayors and their assistants.

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