This is the story of an addition. That of two scores. That of Poitiers Collectif, list led by the regional elected EELV Léonore Moncond’huy, and that of Osons Poitiers 2020, also ecological list with Christiane Fraysse at its head, one of the fiercest opponents to the mayor of Poitiers, Alain Claeys .
On paper, a fairly simple addition
In the first round, Poitiers Collectif won 23.89% of the vote, less than five points from the outgoing mayor. For her part, Christiane Fraysse and her running mates won 9.96% of the vote, barely missing qualification in the second round.
However, if we add 23.89 to 9.96, this gives 33.85. Or 5.64 points better than Alain Claeys in the first round (28.21%).
This is the reason why Osons Poitiers 2020 announced yesterday its decision to merge with Poitiers Collectif. (see above the video posted yesterday by Christaine Fraysse)
Seen like that, everything seems simple. But as we know, politics – and electoral logic in particular – rarely respond to primary mathematical laws.
Except that this time, Alain Claeys, candidate for a third term in a row, is really in danger.
And there aren’t many options left to overcome this math problem. Only two come to him.
The first option is to nibble on the opponent’s political space in order to neutralize it. But that, Alain Claeys already did during the campaign before the first round, by strongly “greening” his program. This did not prevent the two environmental lists from collecting more than a third of the ballots cast.
The second option is a rapprochement with the third candidate qualified for the second round, the macronist Anthony Brottier. With 18.37% of the votes won, he would be the one who would allow Alain Claeys to win for sure.
Ideologically, the differences are small enough between the two men to be overcome.
We remember that the mayor of Poitiers was – for a time – very close to receiving support from LREM. A strategy then defended by Jean-Yves Le Drian and for which Emmanuel Macron would not have been hostile.
But the personal conflict between Alain Claeys and (among other things) the former young Poitevin socialist Stéphane Séjourné – who has meanwhile become one of the pillars of the president’s bodyguard – would have overturned this rapprochement.
It remains to be seen whether the top two would agree to merge. This hypothesis, let’s face it, would still be a huge surprise.
It also remains to be seen whether Anthony Brottier does not simply prefer to merge with the Pictavian right, whose list, led by Thierry Alquier, won 9.82% of the vote in the first round. Which, added to the LREM list score… 28.19%. That is to say, with three ballots, the same score as Alain Claeys.
Damn mathematics.
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