MORTALITY: INSEE notes excess mortality in 2020 compared to March 2018

Burgundy-Franche-Comté is the third region in terms of growth in deaths between March 1 and April 6, 2020. Deaths increased by 30.4% in the Côte-d’Or and by 11% in the Saône-et -Loire compared to 2019.

INSEE press release of April 17, 2020:

Number of deaths by department

Exceptionally, during the covid-19 pandemic, INSEE disseminated the number of deaths per day and by department. Deaths are recorded in the municipality where they took place (and not at the place of residence). The statistics disseminated are provisional and will be updated weekly. Compared to previous weeks, the online publication of Friday, April 17 has been enriched by the addition of a CSV file containing the data on each death occurred in January, February, March and April 2018, 2019 and 2020, this to allow everyone to do their own analysis. This file will be updated weekly.

For each department, the following are available in the form of graphs, maps and files: the number of daily deaths accumulated since March 1 in 2018, 2019 and 2020 until April 6; the number of daily deaths transmitted by the municipalities having opted for a dematerialized transmission on April 1, 2020 (municipalities which transmit data at least since that date electronically and not by paper, therefore usable more quickly) until April 10; the number of cumulative deaths from March 1 in 2018, 2019 and 2020 to April 6 by sex, age and place of death. Special precautions must however be taken in the analysis of data on places of death, due to the proportion of death certificates for which this information is not provided, which can be high at the scale of certain departments and variable d ‘year after year.

An individual file is also made available with, for each death that took place until April 6, the date of death, sex, date of birth and the department of residence of the deceased, the department and the commune of death. , place of death (hospital or clinic, home, retirement home, etc.).

Between mid-March and the end of March, the Marseilles town hall faced technical problems which affected its transmissions to INSEE. The process resumed in early April and estimates were made by INSEE for March from counts provided by the municipality. Data for Bouches-du-Rhône is therefore more fragile than that of other departments and will be more revised. The counts transmitted by the Marseilles town hall do not, however, allow the breakdown by age, sex and place of death for the department of Bouchesdu-Rhône. The estimates made for Marseille in March therefore only concern the number of deaths by department and not deaths by sex, age and place of death. These estimates are also missing from the individual file.

The figures which are presented and commented below are provisional and will be revised in the coming weeks. The number of total deaths recorded between March 1 and 30, 2020 is thus revised compared to last week’s dissemination of + 2.4%, a revision linked to new transmissions to the INSEE of deaths during this period.

At the national level, the number of total deaths recorded on April 16, 2020 and occurring between March 1 and April 6, 2020 is higher than that recorded over the same periods in 2019 or 2018: 76,246 deaths were recorded in 2020 in France (an average of 2,060 deaths per day) compared to 63,686 in 2019 and 71,003 in 2018. Between March 1 and April 6, the number of deaths in France is thus 20% higher than that recorded at same time in 2019 and 7% in 2018. The number of deaths, which averaged 1,830 per day in the first half of March 2020, increased significantly to 2,250 in the second half. As of April 1, the number of daily deaths begins to decrease but remains at a still high level (2,470 deaths per day on average from April 1 to 6). Note, however, that the average number of deaths per day is often higher in January or February, at the time of influenza episodes; in the past five years, it reached a maximum in January 2017 with an average of 2,200 deaths per day (see methodological note). In total, the number of deaths occurring between January 1 and April 6, 2020 rose to 183,841; it is higher than that recorded for the same period in 2019 (179,893) or in 2018 (182,952).

At the regional level, Île-de-France is the region which records the strongest growth in the number of total deaths between March 1 and April 6, 2020 compared to the same period of 2019 (+ 72%), followed by Grand Est (+ 55%) and the two regions of Bourgogne-Franche-Comté and Hauts-de-France (+ 20%). In all these regions, the number of deaths is also higher than that recorded for the same period in 2018.

At the departmental level, three departments have at least twice as many deaths between March 1 and April 6, 2020 than over the same period of 2019: Haut-Rhin (+ 143%), Seine-Saint-Denis and Hauts -de-Seine. Nine other departments record a number of deaths 50% to less than 100% higher than that observed in 2019. These are all the other Ile-de-France departments – Val-de-Marne (+ 78%), Val-d ‘Oise (+ 70%), Paris (+ 62%), Essonne (+ 61%), Seine-et-Marne (+ 55%) and Yvelines (+ 52%) – but also Vosges (+ 74%), Moselle (+ 60%), Bas-Rhin (+ 56%) and Oise (+ 53%). Thirty-two departments in total recorded at least 20% more deaths in 2019.

In contrast, 29 departments have fewer deaths recorded between March 1 and April 6, 2020 than in the same period of 2019. These departments are mainly located in the West and Center of France.

In order to directly compare the deaths occurring in 2020 with the deaths occurring in 2019 and 2018, by neutralizing changes in dematerialization rates, the deaths occurring up to April 10 are communicated on the – constant – field of the municipalities that have opted for dematerialized transmission on April 1, 2020. Compared to figures released last week, the deaths recorded in these municipalities between April 1 and 3 are revised upward by 2.2%.

The number of deaths that occurred in France in these municipalities between March 1 and April 6, 2020 amounted to 71,525 (or 94% of deaths transmitted electronically or by paper by all municipalities). It was 79,665 on April 10, compared to 64,210 between March 1 and April 10, 2019 and 70,997 at the same period in 2018. Whether on April 10, or April 6 , it is the same regions and the same departments which register the highest excess deaths compared to 2019. But these surpluses are often more marked: Haut-Rhin (+ 152%); Seine-Saint-Denis (+ 115%), Hauts-de-Seine (+ 111%), Vosges (+ 88%), Val-de-Marne (+ 83%), etc.

The number of deaths decreased during the week of April 4 to 10 compared to the previous week in France and in all regions except Corsica (+ 2%) and Hauts de France where it is stable. This would confirm the slowdown in the increase in total deaths from April 1. However, if these decreases reflect a real slowdown in the progression of the number of deaths compared to the dynamics observed at the end of March, they must be analyzed with caution, the results being still provisional. In the field of dematerialized municipalities, deaths from Saturday April 4 to Friday April 10 are thus 9% lower than those of the previous week (from Saturday March 28 to Friday April 3), whereas the increase over a week was previously 18%. This slowdown is observed in particular in the Grand Est (-16% after + 9%), in Île-de-France (- 9% after + 55%), in Paca, Occitanie and Pays de La Loire (-10% approximately ) or in Burgundy Franche-Comté (- 3% after + 10%).

Among the departments most affected by Covid-19, the drop in the number of deaths in the week of April 4 to 10 is very clear in Haut-Rhin (-29% after + 4% the previous week), Bas-Rhin (-27% after + 20%), Seine-Saint-Denis (-11% after + 54%), Hauts-de-Seine (- 9% after + 72%), Val-de-Marne (- 12% after + 71%), Val d’Oise and the Yvelines (- 6% after 47%) or Paris (- 19% after + 39%).

The increase in mortality observed between March 1 and April 6, 2020 compared to 2019 is slightly accentuated for men: + 22% against + 17% for women, for France excluding Bouches-du-Rhône. This excess male mortality is very clear in Île-de-France (+ 78% for men, + 66% for women) and in all its departments except the Yvelines: it is more particularly marked in Val-de- Marne or even in Val-d’Oise. In the Great East, this excess male mortality is also proven but with strong differences according to the departments: it is very important in Moselle, notable in the Vosges and almost non-existent or even non-existent in Haut-Rhin and Bas-Rhin. In the Oise, one of the first departments concerned by Covid-19, the rise in mortality is also more marked for men.

As of April 6, 2020, of the deaths that have occurred since March 1 in France outside Bouches-du-Rhône, half concern people over the age of 85 and only 13% of people under the age of 65.

Before age 65, mortality is very close in 2019 and 2020 (4% more deaths observed over the period in 2020 compared to 2019). Beyond this age it increases in 2020, in particular from the age of 75. The number of deaths increases by 24% between 75 and 84 years and by 22% beyond 85 years against 17% between 65 and 74 years. Relative to other age groups, a significant increase in deaths between the ages of 75 and 84 is observed in particular in the Île-de-France region (+ 88% between 2019 and 2020, against + 68% between 65 and 74) and in the majority of the Ile-de-France departments, and especially in Seine-Saint-Denis, in Hauts-de-Seine and in Essonne.

In the Great East, a higher excess mortality of the 75-84 years old is also observed (+ 66% increase in deaths between 75 and 84 years against + 48% between 65 and 74 years), very important in the Haut-Rhin and in the Vosges. However, such a phenomenon is not detected in the Bas-Rhin or the Moselle. Among the departments of other regions, the Territoire-de-Belfort and even the Somme stand out with particularly significant deaths between 75 and 84 years of age.

Among the deaths recorded between March 1 and April 6, 2020 in France outside Bouches-du-Rhône, around 38,000 took place in a hospital or clinic (i.e. 52% of the deaths recorded), 17,000 took place at home (23%), around 10,000 in an establishment for the elderly (14%) and finally slightly less than 8,000 in another place or in an undetermined place (11%). This distribution of deaths according to their place of occurrence is equivalent to that observed in previous years. Deaths occurring during this period in institutions for the elderly nevertheless increased slightly more between 2019 and 2020 than other deaths: + 35% from March 1 to April 6, 2020 compared to the same dates in 2019 against + 20% overall . Above all, the increase in mortality in institutions for the elderly is high from 23 March, whereas previously it was lower than that observed in 2019 or 2018.

The number of deaths reported to have occurred in a retirement home, which was around 210 per day on 1 ?? fortnight of March, reaches an average of 310 per day on the 2nd? fortnight in March, and is around 430 deaths per day on the 1st ?? week of April. The increase is also significant for deaths in hospital, even if less significant than that observed for deaths in institutions for the elderly, with an average number of daily deaths of around 940 the 1 ?? fortnight in March and 1,200 in early April. The same is true for deaths at home, whose daily number rose on average from 420 at the start of the period to 540 at the start of April.

An excess of mortality in institutions for the elderly appears more particularly in two regions: in Île-de-France with an increase in deaths occurring between March 1 and April 6, 2020 of + 172% compared to the same period in March 2019 while the overall increase in deaths is + 72%; in the Grand Est (+ 83% in establishments versus + 55% overall). In Île-de-France, all departments are affected by this excess mortality in institutions for the elderly, notably Hauts-de-Seine and Paris where the number of deaths is multiplied by four compared to 2019. This number of deaths in retirement homes is multiplied by more than three between 2019 and 2020 in Seine-Saint-Denis and in Val de Marne, between 2 and 3 in other departments, except in Seine-et-Marne where the increase is more limited . In the Grand Est, the Haut-Rhin department is particularly affected (four times more deaths in institutions for the elderly than in 2019).

Deaths that took place at home and occurred between March 1 and April 6 increased between 2019 and 2020 slightly faster than all deaths in the Île-de-France region (+ 78% compared to + 72% on average ), and in particular in the Hauts-de-Seine (+ 136% increase in deaths at home against + 99% all places of death combined).

Finally, concerning deaths occurring in hospitals or clinics, they are increasing faster than the number of total deaths in three regions: Hauts-de-France, Corsica and Mayotte.

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