The world in 2024 is characterized by “increasing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.” This is the conclusion reached by Christoph Heusgenthe chairman of the Munich Security Conference (MSC), in the news exhibition security for the Conference, which opens its doors today, Friday (16/02/2023) in the Bavarian capital and is being organized this year for the 60th time.
Her war of aggression of Russia against Ukraine was rated as the biggest security threat in last year’s Global Security Survey (Munich Security Index) mainly in the G7 countries.
Greater risk from climate change and migration
For this year’s State of the World report, MSC polled 12,000 people in G7 countries as well as Brazil, India, China, South Africa and Ukraine.
Russia’s perceived threat today is still rated higher than it was before Moscow invaded two years ago.
However, the effects of migration due to war and climate change are now seen as even more important than Russia’s aggressive stance. But maybe those who were asked about it in October and November 2023 are somewhat used to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
In Ukraine itself, the MSC raised the question of what would be “acceptable conditions for a ceasefire”, with 92% calling for the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, including Crimea. Only 12% said they would agree if only Crimea remained annexed to Russia. More than 1/3 would like Ukraine to quickly join the EU and NATO.
«Lose-Lose»
Under the English title ‘Lose-Lose’ the 10th MSC Security Report describes that everyone is at a loss in the current tense global situation.
Perceptions of a military conflict in the Indo-Pacific between China and Taiwan have risen sharply, according to the survey.
Fears of an increasingly self-confident “one China” have been particularly high in Japan, followed by India, the US, Germany and France.
In the countries of the G7 group (Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Japan, Canada and the USA), “large sections of the population believe that their countries will be less safe and prosperous in ten years”, points out MSC president Christoph Huisgen .
In an analysis of the survey results, it is reported that people in the G7 countries expect an increase in the power and influence of China and the countries of the Global South at the expense of their own countries.
Globalization in reverse
Overall dissatisfaction with the economic situation in the world is increasing. “Despite huge achievements in the post-Cold War era, the main players in the West as well as powerful autocracies and countries of the so-called Global South” are all dissatisfied with the “status quo and their own lot” the Report states. Globalization as a whole has reversed course. Competition and an increased need for security dominate today’s world. Globally, less capital is flowing into China in particular.
“Intensification of geopolitical competition has buried the belief that market-driven globalization leads to a fair distribution of gains,” the report says, noting that states are prioritizing “resilience and security over efficiency.”
“Dramatic political realignments” in the world are recorded in “macroeconomic reality”. Western capital flows are being redirected from China to other partners. “Trade flows also show faint signs of restructuring along geopolitical lines,” says the Munich Security Report, which paints a very pessimistic picture of global interconnectedness.
“De-risking” with China
Supply chains between Asia and other parts of the world that were once interconnected are being disconnected. Europe, however, and especially Germany, stands out as an exception: “German companies continue to invest heavily in China, defying Berlin’s efforts to reduce their involvement,” according to the Munich Security Report 2024.
“German foreign direct investment in China remained at a record level in the first half of 2023”. The German government is following a De-Risking policy with China, in other words, reducing economic dependence.
This started with the pandemic, when supply chains between Germany and China collapsed during the lockdown. This policy has gained momentum as a result of breaking with the long-term dependence on energy imports from Russia. However, this does not yet seem to be reflected in tangible evidence.
Sahel zone: More violence
Russia’s growing military influence in the Sahel belt of countries plays a role in the Report. The coup in Niger re-emerges the loss of influence mainly of the former colonial power such as France. Russia, on the other hand, is trying to “disconnect the Sahel countries from Europe and the US.” And this is precisely where the editors of this year’s Munich Security Report see mostly losers: “People in the region are missing out on an opportunity for peace and democratic progress as each coup since 2020 has brought more violence.”
Fears of misinformation in the digital world
According to the report, increased mistrust worldwide is also reflected in the perception of risk from cyber-attacks and the negative consequences of the use of artificial intelligence. “Technological progress that has long been a driver of global prosperity is increasingly being instrumentalized by adversaries,” the analysis states.
This follows from the results of the Munich Security Index survey, according to which respondents in the US rank this threat particularly highly, followed by those in India. Generally people fear disinformation campaigns in the digital world.
Source: DW
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