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Madrid lose in the final stretch

The First Division teams face eleven final exams after several months of study and what will be a month of training. There is still a lot to solve and, in fact, the top of the ranking is on fire. Not only is the title of champion under debate, with the slight advantage of Barcelona (58) about Real Madrid (56). Also the European posts, with a fierce battle between Sevilla (47), Real Sociedad (46), Getafe (46) and Atlético de Madrid (45). Somewhat more off the hook, although with many options to make the jump, the Valencia (42) or the Villarreal (38). Eleven days ahead and little margin for error. At the moment of truth, the templates have to deal with strong pressure.

Looking back, AS has made a report on the performance of the six heads of the classification in the last eleven days of the last decade. Thus, adding his current score to his performance in the final appointments of the past campaigns, conclusions can be drawn about who steps forward, who steps back and how the current season will end if the behaviors analyzed are repeated. Although the final performance depends on many factors such as the rivals, the qualifying situation or the coexistence of various competitions, a decade serves as a reference to see who reigns when the pressure is on.

Barça subdue Madrid

Real Madrid will have to step forward to win the current championship. With 56 points, he is two from Barcelona. However, history does not speak positively of the end of the season of Zidane’s, at least compared to its eternal rival. Of the last ten campaigns, the Whites have only surpassed the Blaugrana twice. taking into account only the results of the last eleven days. It was in the 2015-16 season (33 points vs. 22) and in 2010-11 (25 vs. 22). Curiously, in neither of them did he end up lifting the trophy. Of course, Madrid would sign the results of both campaigns, since with them he would be champion.

Beyond the two cases exposed, In the other eight seasons that make up the decade, Barcelona have been better in the final dates than Real Madrid. Most of the time the particular you to you was solved for a couple of points. However, Barça have come off well, conquering seven of the last ten domestic tournaments. Madrid, meanwhile, only emerged victorious in the 2011-12 season, with Mourinho’s record, and in 2016-17, with the stellar performance by Zidane’s bench.

So that, if the statistics were repeated, Barcelona would win LaLiga Santander again. The average supports this: those of Quique Setién average 26.3 points in the final sprint of the decade compared to 25.5 of those of Zidane. Both would retain their current position, something that Madrid does not fight for. TThe ‘goal average’ will also come into play: after the 0-0 at Camp Nou, the second in the table hit the table at the Bernabéu with goals from Vinicius and Mariano. In the event of a tie on points, the crown will remain in the capital.

A decade and the final arreón of Madrid and Barça **

Season Real Madrid* Barcelona* Classification
2018-19 17 24 Barça, 1st; Madrid, 3rd
2017-18 22 24 Barça, 1st; Madrid, 3rd
2016-17 28 30 Madrid, 1st; Barça, 2nd
2015-16 33 22 Barça, 1st; Madrid, 2nd
2014-15 28 29 Barça, 1st; Madrid, 2nd
2013-14 twenty 24 Barça, 2nd; Madrid, 3rd
2012-13 27 29 Barça, 1st; Madrid, 2nd
2011-12 27 28 Madrid, 1st; Barça, 2nd
2010-11 25 22 Barça, 1st; Madrid, 2nd
2009-10 28 31 Barça, 1st; Madrid, 2nd

* The points of the last eleven days are collected.

** In bold the seasons in which Madrid would emerge as champion repeating results this year.

History endorses Atlético

It is not being a simple season for Atlético de Madrid. What’s more, on some occasion there has been talk of “transition year“, due to the loss of important players and the youth of the call to be the flagship in the coming years: Joao Félix. Even so, the victory against Liverpool was a moral injection and the qualification for the Champions League is still at hand. Although the rojiblancos occupy the sixth position, they are only two points behind Sevilla, third.

Furthermore, with data from previous years in hand, Atlético alone would not qualify for the Champions League in a season of the last ten. It would be precisely in 2009-10, when he was only able to sign 13 points in the final stretch. The rest of years it would give the return him to his present situation and would return to play the maximum continental competition. In fact, in five of them he would even manage to close in third position.

Unlike their rivals, the rojiblanca decade has been more regular, even with the 2013-14 league title. In addition, another factor that plays in its favor is the separation of European leagues for European competitions. There will be no alternation due to the coronavirus crisis, which implies that you can fully focus on the domestic championship without losing oxygen trying to conquer Europe. The same thing happens to Sevilla and Getafe, survivors of the Europa League.

Atlético, better than their rivals in the final stretch

Season Points in the last 11 days Comparison with their rivals for the Champions *
2018-19 twenty The best
2017-18 18 The second best
2016-17 26 The best
2015-16 27 The best
2014-15 22 The second best
2013-14 26 The best
2012-13 19 The second best
2011-12 19 The best
2010-11 twenty The best**
2009-10 *** 13 Worst****

* Getafe, Real Sociedad and Sevilla, assuming that Real Madrid and Barcelona will not lose Champions.

** Tied on points with Sevilla.

*** In bold for being the only year in which he would not play the Champions League if he repeats score this season.

**** Real Sociedad played in the Second Division.

Sevilla start with an advantage

Not only for his third position, Sevilla is the top contender to return to the Champions League next season. The team trained by Lopetegui signs an average of 17 points in the last eleven days of the last decade, a figure better than Real Sociedad and Getafe towards their goal. It’s more, he would only lose the place in three of the last ten campaigns (2017-18, 2015-16 and 2012-13), an outstanding fact for the low point advantage that it currently has.

La Real and Getafe will have a difficult time. Not by sensations, but by the two giants they face, plus the arreón from behind Valencia or Villarreal. Alguacil’s men would only maintain their current Champions League position in two years: 2015-16 and 2012-13. For their part, those from Bordalás, after falling ‘in extremis’ last season, will try again. Seeing past results, the ‘Geta’ would make the jump to the Champions League in 2009-10 and in 2017-18. Eleven days, 110 games and few prizes. They will be for the elect.

The ‘Top 6’, at the end of LaLiga

Europeans in the last eleven days *

Equipment points Average of the last 11 days since 09-10 Total points Variation
Barcelona 58 26.3 84.3 I would be champion
Real Madrid 56 25.5 81.5 It would be second
Seville 47 17.2 64.2 From 3rd to 4th
Real society 46 fifteen 61 From 4th to 5th
Getafe 46 13.3 59.3 From 5th to 6th
Athletic Four. Five twenty-one 66 From 6th to 3rd

* Getafe and Real Sociedad are accounted for their nine seasons in the First Division and not in the Second.


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