Kasikorn Bank Public Company Limited or KBANK Looking at the range of the baht’s value movement next week (12-16 Feb. ’24) at the level of 35.70-36.20 baht/dollar from the market closing on Friday, Feb. 9, ’24 at the level of 35.90 baht/dollar.
At the beginning of the week The baht weakened along with other currencies in the region amid support from the dollar. From the numbers of non-agricultural employment in the United States. which came out better than the market expected. But the baht was able to partially recover later in the period following the short-term strengthening of the yuan. Received a signal from the Chinese authorities to maintain the stability of the stock market. In addition, there should be strong buying back of the baht to adjust positions before the meeting.Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) midweek
However, the baht turned to weaken again during the rest of the week. After the meeting resultsMPC There was a unanimous vote of 5 to 2 to maintain the policy interest rate at 2.50% and lowered the estimated growth rate of the Thai economy in 2024.
In addition, the baht weakened in line with the yen. after the governorBank of Japan (BOJ) Said the BOJ will continue to use accommodative monetary policy for a while longer. Although there may be an end to the negative interest rate policy in the future. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened following the official’s statement.The United States Federal Reserve (Fed) That reflects the timing of the US interest rate reduction. It may not happen soon. This is because the Fed wants to ensure that inflation slows to its target level of 2%.
As for the investment portfolio status of foreign investors between 5-9 February 2024, foreign investors net sold Thai stocks for 1,028 million baht and had a status of Net Outflows from the Thai bond market for 11,917 million baht (net sales 9,917 million baht of bonds and 2,000 million baht of expired debt instruments)
Important factors to follow next week include the direction of foreign investment and officials’ statements.The Fed While important US economic figures include consumer inflation expectations, retail sales, industrial production, the Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index and January home construction numbers, government survey results. New York and Philadelphia Fed production figures, February housing market index and weekly jobless claims figures. In addition, the market is still waiting to follow the 4Q23 GDP numbers of Japan, England and the Eurozone. and January inflation figures for England as well.
2024-02-10 03:30:00
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