“Italy is no longer at the bottom of the EU”. In the industrial districts, turnover grew by 0.8%

An Italy that “is no longer at the bottom of Europe”, to put it in the words of Intesa Sanpaolo’s chief economist, Gregorio De Felice, and in which we have seen “changes that until a few years ago seemed impossible – as noted by president Gian Maria Gros-Pietro – Productivity is growing more than the rest of Europe and the districts are driving the positive aspects of change”.

These are the highlights of the sixteenth edition of the annual report of the Intesa Sanpaolo Studies and Research Department on industrial districts. The turnover of companies in the districts increased slightly in 2023 (+0.8%), placing it well above the levels of 2019 (+20%).

The analysis, presented in Milan this morning, examined the financial statements of approximately 20,800 companies. Expectations for the current two-year period are positive: an increase in turnover at current prices of district companies of 1.1% in 2024 and +2% in 2025 is expected. The process of strengthening the capital of district companies continued: net worth as a percentage of liabilities rose above the 30% threshold in the districts, slightly higher than values ​​observed outside the districts. An original long-term analysis of company balance sheets shows how this percentage has doubled in twenty years (it was just under 16% in the three-year period 1998-2000).

According to the analysis, investments to streamline production processes and enhance self-production of energy are growing. A quarter of district businesses managed to contain the increase in bills to 4% in the five-year period 2019-23. The double green and digital transition will be the main driver of investments: companies with 4.0 investments obtain advantages both in terms of growth and productivity.

Gros-Pietro also made some insights into highly topical issues. “The Superbonus – he said – has mainly affected public finances but also on inflation”. “When – he added – building interventions can be carried out completely for free, spending goes. There was a perverse mechanism that made prices skyrocket. The push towards inflation that came from this instrument was very strong. However, it should be underlined that the superbonus also helped the rebound after Covid.”

And the prospects for a decline in rates are closely linked to inflation. With Europe in the lane of overtaking the USA. “In the United States there is a potential slowdown on the part of the Central Bank in lowering rates, but this is because the American economy is doing well, the labor market is tense, wages continue to grow and therefore it is clear that from this inflationary impulses may arise, which leads the Federal Reserve to think that it is necessary to go slowly with rate cuts. None of this happens in Europe and therefore it is logical to think that the European Central Bank could this time get ahead of the American Federal Central Bank in a future. first rate cut,” Gros-Pietro said on the sidelines of the presentation.