Interview with Marton Ugrosdi, Director of the Hungarian Institute of Foreign Policy and Trade
–
–
Hungary is one of Ukraine’s neighbors, which is also involved in the reception of war refugees. Until a few years ago, Hungary was considered one of the most disadvantaged countries for migrants. However, despite aid to the Ukrainians, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is known for his close ties with Russia, the purchase of Russian vaccines and his refusal to buy Russian natural gas in the future. According to the Hungarian Government, all this is in the interests of the Hungarian people. Commentators explain such a cautious attitude towards Moscow with Sunday’s upcoming parliamentary elections. How does Hungary see itself in the European Union, and how has Ukraine’s war affected its relations with its neighbors and allies?
Uģis Lībietis: Hungary has always been like a problem child of the European Union. Its policies have been highly controversial and have been widely criticized. How would you describe Hungary’s current position in the European Union?
Martons Ugrošdī: On the one hand, the Hungarian government has an ideological dispute with Europe’s leading politicians. It is very conservative when it comes to social issues. It is market-friendly when it comes to regulation. And it is very pragmatic in foreign policy matters. For many years, we believe that the European institutions have embarked on this ideological struggle to which they were not entitled. But over the last 12 years, both sides have become accustomed to it. Already around 2010 or 2011, the Hungarian government realized that the European perspective was not important for local elections, as citizens of other European Union countries would not vote. Therefore, this tension was gradually integrated into the domestic political discourse. And in the last two or three elections, maintaining this anti-Brussels stance has been a very important part of the campaign. If the war in Ukraine had not started, the same thing would have happened this time. It is recalled that the funds of the Recovery Mechanism have been frozen, discussions on the rule of law in Hungary and so on are ongoing.
Although Hungary is engaged in this ideological struggle, it has supported Europe’s economic interests: we are very well integrated into German supply chains and we need to attract investment. That is why we have tried to provide an entrepreneur-friendly environment, and this is confirmed by the successful work of multinational companies here, which in turn is reflected in the high economic growth rates.
Uģis Lībietis: You have already mentioned the war in Ukraine, which has definitely changed the understanding of what is happening in the whole region. Hungary is Ukraine’s neighbor and has hosted a large number of refugees, but a pragmatic foreign policy approach has taken the form of promises to continue buying Russian gas. And such a decision has provoked a mixed reaction. How would you comment on that?
Martons Ugrošdī: This issue is, in fact, controversial throughout Europe, as there are many large countries that do not even want to stop buying gas from Russia immediately. And the story is not whether they are evil or pro-Russian – they have a different energy portfolio. If you get 100% gas from Russia, it can’t be turned off in one day. It can, of course, but it has a political and economic price. At the beginning of the war, there was a month before our elections, and our government had to be very careful. Energy prices are a very important issue for us. In 2014, one of the government’s biggest promises to help it stay in power was to take control of energy prices, reducing prices for private consumers. As a result, we have highly regulated energy prices, which are among the lowest in Europe. This, of course, has two political consequences. People like low bills. On the other hand, it promotes competitiveness, because large companies need cheap gas and cheap electricity. Therefore, we cannot act like Poland or the Baltic States, which are committed to giving up buying Russian resources altogether. Yes, we also actually have 100% gas from Russia, but over the last 15 years we have invested in interconnections with our neighbors so that we have a way out in the event of a crisis. But the key question is, will gas be available at all?
Uģis Lībietis: This week we saw that the representatives of the Visegrad group refused to come to the meeting with the representatives of Hungary, expressing their dissatisfaction with the position of the Hungarian government against Russia. How would you explain this, and what message does it convey about the unity of this group or simply the attitude of its neighbors?
Martons Ugrošdī: People see the Visegrad Group as a group of Central European countries that are very closely linked institutionally. But that has never been the case. When we have common interests, we try to work on them. When our interests are different … We try not to talk about it! Russia is undeniably one of those distribution lines. Poland is at one end of the spectrum, Hungary at the other. And this has continued since the illegal annexation of Crimea. What is happening is an interesting development, but I do not think that the Visegrad Group of Four has ceased to exist. We are still geographically and economically close, and yet we look at things politically.
The war in Ukraine will not last forever, and once the parties reach an agreement, the differences within the Visegrad Group will no longer be so significant.
Some kind of cooperation will definitely be suspended for a while now, and the reasons are obvious. However, this does not change the similar views of the Polish and Hungarian governments, for example, on Brussels’ progressive politicians on issues such as agricultural financing, energy security, regulation of online media. These issues are like a roller coaster, and Russia may not be the main issue in a few years. However, we all agree that ending the war is in our common interest.
Uģis Lībietis: I wanted to ask about Ukraine, refugees and Hungarian migration policy. Only a few years ago, Hungary took a very strong stance against, so to speak, ‘wrong’ migrants. But now we are seeing a change in policy and Hungary has taken in a very large number of Ukrainian refugees. Why so, and how should such a change in attitude be explained? What signals does it send?
Martons Ugrošdī: According to both the government and us, this situation is fundamentally different, because we are the first safe country for Ukrainian war refugees. The first is peace. And that is why we have a duty to welcome these people. Not just because it is governed by international law. It will sound strange after 2015, but we must also welcome these people out of human sympathy. This is not the first time we have taken in refugees – the same happened between 1991 and 1995, when we took in a significant number of people fleeing the Yugoslav war. It should be noted here that even when our Prime Minister was in office for the first time, NATO countries were bombing Kosovo, and that has also affected his thinking. However, the main difference with 2015 is that we were not the first safe country for those refugees. People fleeing Syria, Afghanistan or Iraq had visited many countries before entering the European Union. Buying citizenship and seeking a good life is one thing, but providing temporary or permanent shelter for people fleeing war is quite another. The clearest difference was seen last year on the Polish-Belarusian border, when the soldiers were confronted by armed soldiers and tried to prevent them from entering the country, but now Poland has hosted more than two million people, which is causing serious difficulties for the country. But they do not regret and reject the people, because that is their duty as the first state.
Hungary is also the first safe country for Ukrainian fugitives, and we need to protect them, provide them with asylum and work if they want to, and help them if they want to move on to Europe.
And I must say that I am reading the German edition with a smile, where they are very surprised by this behavior of Hungary, because they did not notice this fundamental difference.
Uģis Lībietis: And how does this situation change the public attitude towards refugees and migrants?
Martons Ugrošdī: In my opinion, there is also a very good public awareness that there is a war going on in the neighborhood and that the situation is much different than before. The prime minister had also gone to the border and talked to people who have found themselves in safety. Political attitudes are changing and, as we did 30 years ago in the Yugoslav war, we are once again willing to take refuge.
Uģis Lībietis: If the war continues, and it is likely that it will continue for some time, how can it affect Hungary’s attitudes and views in the European Union and NATO, and in what direction can they develop?
Martons Ugrošdī: In my opinion, there is such a waiting regime at the moment, because we need to see how Ukraine will emerge from this war. Hopefully it will end soon and it will not become a protracted conflict. Of course, Hungary has always supported and continues to support the indivisibility of Ukraine, including Crimea. But if you look at the map, it is very likely that at the end of the war the borders of Ukraine could look different.
Even if it is a frozen conflict, even if an agreement is reached, it is unlikely that the hitherto occupied eastern territories of Ukraine will return to Kiev’s control.
It is necessary to look at how the Ukrainian government and the president will develop [Volodimirs] Zelensky will retain his post. What will happen to the currently banned opposition parties? How will civic movements develop or will the media be restored? And so on … But the most important question will be how viable and sustainable the Ukrainian economy will be. We are currently talking only about the success of the destruction of Russian tanks by Ukrainian soldiers, but the war also means that the Ukrainian economy is being destroyed before our eyes. And this will mean a rise in prices for cereals, because agriculture has been neglected and tractors are harvesting tanks. I do not expect a good harvest in Ukraine this year.
Therefore, it can be predicted that after the end of the war the Ukrainian economy will be in a very, very bad state. And it will be in the interest of the whole of Europe to help rebuild Ukraine as soon as possible. No one wants a confused society that needs foreign help to survive all the time. Hungary will certainly play a role in the reconstruction of Ukraine – yes, we are a relatively small country and our ambitions will be limited, but we should not be ashamed to admit that this could also be a business opportunity for our companies. And we need to talk about it as soon as possible. Before the war, relations between the Ukrainian and Hungarian governments were quite complicated, but now it does not matter – now it is our job to help as much as we can. It will be necessary to see how the issue of Hungarians living in Ukraine will change, but it is currently unpredictable. Until 2017, when this controversial education law was passed, we have always supported Ukraine and its move towards the European Union. In my opinion, this position has not changed – we are interested in a peaceful, developed and prosperous Ukraine. Because we have a good relationship with such successful neighbors. But it all depends on when the war ends and what leadership the people of Ukraine will choose when they have the opportunity to elect it again.
–
