Is There a Future for Palestinian Autonomy in Gaza?

2023-11-07 15:49 United News Network said in a corner that Gaza has been completely blocked and bombed by Israel for a month, with a total of more than 10,000 deaths. Because Israel refuses to cease fire, all walks of life are dissatisfied…

Text/Wang Yingzhi

“After the Israeli tanks, who will govern the broken Gaza…” US Secretary of State Blinken met with the Palestinian Autonomous Government on the 5th. The two sides claimed that the dialogue was limited to discussing the humanitarian situation in Gaza, but it still triggered speculation from the outside world that in Israel After the comprehensive cleansing of Gaza and Hamas, the Gaza region will inevitably need to be governed by the Palestinians themselves. The US plan may be to hand it over to an autonomous government. However, it has always been difficult for the Palestinian autonomous government to compete with Israel. If it wants to become the rebuilder of Gaza, what internal problems and external factors must it face? And can it win public support?

Since Israel was attacked by the armed organization Hamas on October 7, Israel has launched an all-out bombing and blockade of Gaza for nearly a month. A total of approximately 1,400 Israelis were killed in this attack, and as of the morning of the 7th, more than 10,000 people had been killed in Gaza. Although various countries continue to urge Israel to cease the fire, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shows no signs of softening and seems determined to not give up until Hamas is annihilated.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on the 5th. Blinken revealed that if the future of Gaza is considered, “Palestinian views, voices and aspirations must be at the center of the discussion.”

“The focus of this meeting is not the future of Gaza, but the Palestinian Authority appears ready to play an important role.”

Reuters reported that Blinken also thanked Abbas for helping him “maintain calm” in the West Bank. According to the official Palestinian news agency WAFA, Abbas told Blinken that if Palestine establishes an independent state, Gaza is an indispensable territory. Although it is not stated explicitly, it implies that the PA is trying to gain the power to govern Gaza, even partially. And this condition must be included in Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations.

“As long as there is a complete political plan that covers the West Bank, Gaza corridor and East Jerusalem, PA will shoulder our responsibilities in accordance with the plan framework,” Abbas said.

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken met with Palestinian President Abbas on November 5. The two did not directly talk about Gaza…

Abbas also reiterated that the United States must immediately demand a ceasefire from Israel and allow more supplies to safely enter Gaza. “CNN” reported that no press release was issued for the meeting, but US State Department officials revealed some key points. Because Blinken believed that the United States had spent a lot of effort on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, the meeting with Abbas was precisely to “help the PA update information.” ”. Perhaps in order to win the trust of the PA, the US specifically informed the PA of its mediation efforts with Israel, such as pressuring Israel to reduce harm to civilians, helping Gaza obtain necessary supplies, and long-term discussions on how to implement the humanitarian moratorium. However, the United States also emphasized that Blinken and Abbas never discussed the future governance of Gaza.

Husam Zomlot, the Palestinian representative to the UK, pointed out that the meeting between Blinken and Abbas was tense, with Abbas criticizing Israel for “violently and brutally attacking Palestinian civilians.” “What we need is for the United States to act as an honest mediator, rather than just adopting the Israeli narrative… We need a mature adult to step forward, and that should be the United States,” Zomrat said. “But unfortunately, We have not yet discussed a joint statement.”

The League of Arab States also issued a joint appeal on November 4. In particular, Jordan and Egypt both strongly expressed their hope to Blinken that the United States can persuade Israel to cease fire immediately. But Blinken dismissed the possibility of a ceasefire, saying a ceasefire now would only give Hamas a chance to reorganize its organization and potentially expose Israel to renewed attacks. When he talked about the option of “humanitarian pauses”, he still focused on Israel’s priorities, including the possibility of asking Hamas to release more than 200 hostages. Blinken emphasized the US position: “When the threat comes from an armed group that is aligned with Iran, (the ceasefire) is completely unacceptable.”

Blinken’s meeting with Abbas lasted only one hour, and then he rushed to Iraq to discuss the situation in the Middle East with Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani to prevent other regions from taking advantage of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to cause further trouble. This was also his first visit to Iraq.

Gaza has been under total blockade and bombardment by Israel for a month, with more than 10,000 people dead. Because Israel refuses to cease fire, all walks of life are dissatisfied…

▌PJE, the takeover of Gaza?

In view of Israel’s tough attitude from beginning to end, US mediation has not changed the situation at all. People from all walks of life have inevitably begun to predict how Israel will deal with the scorched earth of Gaza after it reaches the “endgame” to eliminate Hamas. Among various options, letting the internationally recognized Palestinian entity, the more moderate PA, take over Gaza seems to be the most reasonable option. However, all parties familiar with the Palestinian situation do not believe that the PA can play a good governance role.

London’s “The New Arab” reported that an anonymous source close to the PA made it clear: “Some people think that after Israel invades Gaza, the PA will take over Gaza as a possible option, but this is full of visible consequences. Risk. The image of the PA coming in behind Israeli tanks and warplanes, trying to manage a devastated Gaza is very unrealistic.”

The leading entity of the PA is the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO, referred to as the Palestine Liberation Organization), which is a mixed political and military organization composed of multiple factions. In the past, its main leader was Yasser Arafat. In the 1980s and 1990s, the PLO shifted from struggle and resistance to seeking compromise in politics and diplomacy, and in 1993 it signed theOslo Accords“(Oslo I Accord), agreed to establish a “Palestinian state” with the West Bank and Gaza as its territory, but put aside East Jerusalem and many other disputes. A large number of Palestinians, who have lost their homeland and relatives, regard this move as cowardice and humiliation.

Since then, Hamas, which was more radical and unwilling to coexist with Israel, captured more people’s hearts and continued to grow. Finally, in 2007, a civil war broke out with the PLO and captured Gaza. Since then, Hamas has controlled Gaza, Palestine, and Gaza. The PA under the leadership of the Communist Party of China controls the West Bank. The gap between the PLO and the forces opposing Israel is getting deeper and deeper. Not only is it unable to influence the warring Israel and Hamas, it is also unable to face anti-Israel armed forces such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hezbollah in Yemen. Influence, and whether it can suppress the spread of extremism after the Gaza War, are not expected to be optimistic.

The 87-year-old Abbas has succeeded Arafat as the successor to the Palestine Liberation Liberation Army and the Palestinian Autonomous Government in 2004, but…

▌Inability to confront Israel leads to public resentment

On the other hand, the West Bank ruled by the PA cannot be said to be a place of peace and contentment.West Bank since 1967third middle east warSince then, it has been under Israeli military occupation, and important matters such as taxation and energy supply are still firmly in the hands of the Israeli government. Israel has been building settlements in the West Bank for a longer period of time, demolishing Palestinian houses and allocating land to Jews to build exclusive communities, leading to the fragmentation of the West Bank land.

Under the leadership of the PA, Arafat’s successor and current President Abbas advocated non-violent struggle and political negotiation. However, not only did he lack Arafat’s charisma, the PLO he led has also been mired in scandals such as corruption and incompetence for a long time. . Abbas has refused to hold or delayed elections for various reasons since 2006, seriously lacking the legitimacy of public support. The most important thing is that the PA led by Abbas claims to cooperate with Israel, but it has always been unable to resist the latter’s tough tactics. Faced with the increasingly frequent malicious attacks by Israeli military and civilians in the West Bank, the PA has no way to respond.

The anonymous source also described: “When PA police see Israeli settlers approaching, they will retreat and avoid challenging the settlers.”

In 2022, the Palestinian Central Council within the PLO also passedresolution, decided to “temporarily suspend recognition of the Israeli regime” and stated that it would terminate all forms of cooperation between the two parties, but the PLO Central Committee has yet to fulfill its obligations. These have repeatedly deepened people’s dissatisfaction with PA.According to the United Nationsstatistics, since October 7, at least 129 Palestinians have died in the West Bank due to attacks by Israeli settlers or soldiers. More than 2,000 people have been injured, and more than 1,000 people have been expelled.However, Palestinian residents continued to take to the streets to protest Israel’s bombing of Gaza, and at the same time vented their dissatisfaction with the PA. As a result, they had many deadly conflicts with the military and police, and some demonstrators were even attacked by the Israeli military.drone attackrepression.

The PA has struggled to convince the public in the West Bank under its rule. Now it relies on financial assistance from the Israeli government and many international organizations to operate. Its role in international politics has long been marginalized. Faced with the “expectations” of Blinken and the United States, can the PA The answer to becoming a leader in rebuilding Gaza, leading Gaza out of the shadows, and successfully curbing the spread of radicalism may not be optimistic. As Nadia Naser-Najjab, a Palestinian expert at the University of Exeter in the UK, pointed out, the PA’s only prominent governance method currently is to suppress speech. If someone openly criticizes the PA in the community, he will soon be punished. They will be arrested. Most Palestinians have already regarded the PA as an illegal entity and just a group of elites that are deviant from the people’s support.

“This group of ‘elites’ does not align with anyone, does not stand with any political party or resistance force,” Nasser-Najja said. “Israel and international donors have always supported the PA while ensuring that it will never exist. The complete and independent sovereign state of Palestine.”

On October 30, US Secretary of State Blinken met with Palestinian President Abbas in Jordan.Abbas led… Turn the Corner says

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2023-11-07 07:49:32