Berlin is very afraid that Putin will turn off the gas valve and Europe will simply freeze in winter. That is why Germany put pressure on Canada to make an exception to the sanctions, and Siemens was able to transfer gas to Gazprom turbine, which was under repair.
Without this turbine, according to the Kremlin, Nord Stream 1 will not be able to work normally. Although this is not so, since there are eight such turbines. And allegedly all eight were exempted from the sanctions. Although officially this information has not yet been confirmed.
How will Europe get through this winter? Where will Ukraine take gas? What will we do if Putin turns off the gas valve? About all this TSN.do I spoke with the General Director of the “GTS Operator of Ukraine” Sergey Makogon.
– Now in Europe there is a real festival of panic and hysteria. Everyone thinks that Putin will turn off the gas valve this winter. Will Europe freeze?
– Indeed, there is a difficult situation on the gas market in Europe. However, this gas crisis began last year. Then “Gazprom” has already begun to “dry” Europe, not to deliver significant volumes of gas. Last year, the Russian company did not pump gas into Gazprom-owned or controlled European underground gas storage facilities, which were 8-10% full. And it was already the first bell. This year, especially when the large-scale military invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine began, they have already thrown off their masks and are blackmailing not only Ukraine, as they did before, but the whole of Europe.
We remember that at first they demanded to pay in rubles for gas and cut off gas supplies to Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, forcing a significant number of countries to comply with their conditions. But this was not enough for them. Today we see that even companies that pay in rubles do not receive gas.
Firstly, Gazprom imposed self-sanctions, banning itself from using the Yamal gas pipeline through Poland.
Secondly, “Gazprom” does not even use the capacity because of Ukraine, which he has already booked and paid for. Now they use about 40% of what they booked through Ukraine.
Thirdly, “Gazprom” has reduced the transit “Nord Stream-1”. The reason – one turbine was detained due to sanctions in Canada. But after all, all experts understand that one turbine does not affect the operation of compressor stations at all, because there are eight of them. Therefore, this is an additional reason to show Europe who is “in charge” here.
I am sure that Europe has already realized that Russia is an unreliable supplier. And we already see that the EU countries have begun to refuse gas from the Russian Federation. Germany has planned to build its own LNG terminals and the first one is already under construction. Therefore, in my opinion, an irreversible process of Europe’s rejection of Russian gas has begun. But yes, I agree with you – this winter will be very difficult. Europe is preparing and now European storage facilities are already 60% full. This is the average for the last 5 years. Therefore, if Russia continues transit this year, I think there will be no big problems. But there is a risk that Gazprom will completely stop transit, and this could be an energy shock for Europe. European countries have a plan of measures, such as shutting down non-critical enterprises and consumers; transition to alternative energy sources – fuel oil, coal, and coal-fired power plants have already begun to be used, etc. No one will freeze, but there will be some discomfort.
– Will Ukraine have enough gas of its own production to fully cover the needs of our consumption on its own? In addition, since 2015 we have abandoned Russian gas, importing blue fuel from Europe. So, if Europe does not have enough gas, will it be enough for us?
– I would like to remind you that we have our own production – about 20 billion cubic meters. In addition, the government and Naftogaz are very actively working to create gas reserves. Preparations for the next winter are supervised by the prime minister, meetings are constantly ongoing. There is a certain plan of action. Gas imports have already begun. We, as the GTS Operator, have done our homework. Over the past year, we have doubled the possibility of imports from Poland, Slovakia, Hungary. We are working on the possibility of importing from Turkey, Greece, where there is liquefied and Azerbaijani gas. Therefore, everyone is working to ensure that Ukraine goes through this winter without problems. But we understand that when a country is at war, this is a very difficult task.
– Gazprom put Nord Stream-1 really on a scheduled annual repair. But in Germany, real panic. Berlin believes that the Russians will not launch Nord Stream 1 at all. At the same time, Gazprom did not book additional capacities because of the Ukrainian GTS. This is chantage?
– Indeed, gas pipelines undergo scheduled repairs every year. Therefore, the repair of Nord Stream 1 is a familiar situation. Every year since 2010, when it was built, scheduled maintenance work has been carried out. But until 2021, Gazprom always booked additional capacities for this period through Ukraine or Poland. I believe that now Gazprom is using every opportunity to reduce the volume of gas supplies to the EU, to create panic in the European gas market so that the price rises as much as possible. We understand that this gas price puts a lot of pressure on politicians in the EU, because there is already dissatisfaction among both consumers and businesses over the high price of natural gas. This is part of Russia’s political pressure on Europe to get rid of sanctions and achieve its political goals. It is no longer a secret that Russia is using gas as a hybrid weapon against our allies in Europe.
Let’s take a look at these turbines. It turns out that Canada has made an exception to the sanctions for Siemens.not for one Russian turbine, which was under repair and needed for the operation of Nord Stream 1, but for all eight?
We haven’t seen this document yet. As far as I know, the turbine has not yet left for Russia. In addition, the Congress of Ukrainians in Canada filed a lawsuit against the government of Canada to remove this exemption. That is why we continue this fight. But, in my opinion, this is a very bad example of an exception to sanctions. If the sanctions are already in place, Europe should not look every time for some opportunity for exceptions to satisfy Russia. Everyone understands that the Kremlin is out of control, they make completely illogical decisions. And relying on Putin’s goodwill after everything that is happening in Ukraine seems to me a very stupid policy. Europe should not be blackmailed by the Russian Federation. It is impossible to have a dialogue with terrorists, because a terrorist will always ask for more and more.
– In parallel with the news about the turbine, the shutdown of Nord Stream 1, Russia launched a real informational special operation in Germany to launch Nord Stream 2. It would seem that this project should have been buried long ago. But, no, they are pushing it as solving all the problems of Germany.
– Yes, there are already the first swallows. A number of Bundestag deputies have already voiced such a proposal. But it will be a total loss in Europe if it happens. And it is impossible to somehow argue the launch of Nord Stream-2 in this situation. It will be a downfall for European unity. In addition, they still understand that the problem is not in capacity. We have the ability to pump all the gas from both streams through Poland and Ukraine. We have spare capacity. The problem is not in the gas pipeline, but in the fact that Russia does not provide this gas in order to put pressure on Europe. Therefore, I consider the chances that Nord Stream 2 will work as small.
It seems to me that in Europe, especially in Germany, the attitude of people towards the previous leadership has changed a lot. People already understand that Germany has become weaker and more dependent on the Russian Federation. Because they actually have to make some compromises with the aggressor country because of the artificially created dependence of Germany on gas from the Russian Federation.
– gas embargo. We heard that it will definitely not be in the seventh package of EU sanctions against the Russian Federation. Tell me, why is the EU so dependent on Russian gas that it is absolutely impossible to give it up before the end of the year?
– We know the position of certain countries in relation to the seventh package. Among them are the Czech Republic, Hungary and several others. First of all, this demonstrates the dependence of these countries on Russian gas. For example, Hungary is completely dependent on gas supplies from the Russian Federation. No one understands at what price gas is supplied, and why Hungary behaves this way not only in gas matters, but in general in matters of sanctions against the Russian Federation. This is a strong signal to me that perhaps Russia is using its influence on Hungary to block sanctions. And this is Russia’s approach to cooperation with the EU, when they apply the principle of “divide and rule”: they divide Europe, European politicians and thus achieve their political goals.
We will fight for gas sanctions to be introduced. Maybe partially. I see no obstacles why it is impossible to impose sanctions on liquefied gas from the Russian Federation. This is a significant flow of funds to Russia. Pipe gas can be limited. For example, it is possible to ban the operation of Nord Stream 1 using the Polish and Ukrainian routes for transit. During the war, it is very important for us to maintain transit through Ukraine, because this, as we say, is our “iron dome” against the destruction of our GTS. For we do not have separate pipelines for the transit and transportation of gas to our own consumers. And as long as Russia is interested in transit, it will not destroy our GTS, as it does with Ukrainian oil refineries, oil depots, Ukrzaliznytsia, logistics centers, etc. We need transit to ensure that they do not destroy our GTS.
– Well, some European countries are very dependent on Russian gas. But there are alternative providers. We know about Azerbaijan, Qatar. Who else?
– Currently, large volumes of liquefied gas are supplied to Europe. By the way, last month, for the first time in history, the volume of liquefied gas supplied to the EU exceeded the volume of Russian gas. This is LNG from the USA, Qatar, Australia and other countries. They are increasing their exports. Unfortunately, today in Europe there are problems with an insufficient number of LNG terminals and combinations between countries. For example, Spain has many LNG terminals, but the country is almost not connected to the European GTS. There is no powerful interconnector between Spain and France. We know that there was not a single LNG terminal in Germany, they always built pipes from the Russian Federation. But they have decided to build four LNG terminals, and the first one is already under construction. Therefore, it takes time – two or three years – for the situation to change dramatically. I believe that Russia is forever losing the gas market in Europe. But let me tell you, it takes time. Russia understands that Europe is still dependent, so it uses this dependence to the maximum for blackmail.
– In conclusion, I want to clarify about Hungary, which has declared a state of emergency in the energy sector and banned the export of energy resources. You were right to say that no one still knows at what price it buys this gas from Russia. But obviously she’s very good. That is, Hungary is doing well. Why is she then declaring a state of emergency?
– I think this is a more political decision aimed at the domestic consumer, to show that the Hungarian government is taking the necessary measures. There was information that the EU was concerned about this decision, which may not be in line with EU principles. We also do not understand why exports should be restricted. Because even when a state of emergency was in effect in Ukraine, we did not restrict gas transit. Now there is a transit of gas from Poland through Ukraine to Hungary. For example, if Ukraine wants to buy gas from Austria and bring it through Hungary, what are the energy risks for Hungary? Incomprehensible approach. We are still studying this solution. However, in addition to Hungary, there are also directions for imports from Slovakia (it is much larger than volumes) and Poland. Therefore, we are diversified and there are alternative opportunities for gas supplies to Ukraine.
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