Inflation rates from both Norway and the US are among the items on the economic calendar for the coming week. – Can strengthen our opinion about interest rate cuts in September, says the chief economist.
Kjersti Haugland, chief economist at DNB Markets, points to the CPI figures from the US as the most important for the international markets in the coming week. Photo: Siv DolmenPublished: Published:
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– It will be an exciting week with inflation figures among the big highlights, says Kjersti Haugland, chief economist at DNB Markets.
Here at home, the week begins with fresh inflation figures for February on Monday morning.
In January, price growth ended at 4.7 per cent compared to the same month last year, figures from Statistics Norway showed. Core inflation, which ignores energy prices and tax changes, calmed down to 5.3 per cent.
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June can be the month of the stock market year
DNB Markets expects core inflation to moderate to 5.1 per cent.
– If we get it right, it will be well below the central bank’s estimate of 5.5 per cent. That in itself can strengthen our view that Norges Bank will cut interest rates in September.
The next interest rate decision from Norges Bank comes together with the Monetary Policy Report on Thursday 21 March.
This happens in week 11
Monday 11 March
- Norwegian inflation figures for February
- The EU’s environmental agency presents a climate report
- Finance Minister Trygve Slagsvold Vedum (Sp) meets the press before the government’s budget conference
- NHO with the forecast Economic overview for 1/2024
- Annual report from Petoro and SDØE, the state’s directly owned shares in Norwegian oil and gas operations.
Tuesday 12 March
- US inflation figures (CPI)
- Monthly report from Opec
- Gyldendal with annual report
- German inflation figures
- Avinor with traffic figures for February
- The Veterinary Institute in Bergen launches the Fish Health Report for 2023
- Kongsberg Automotive with results for the fourth quarter
Wednesday March 13
- Consultation deadline for the government’s proposal on exploration in new oil and gas areas
- Russian inflation figures
- Annual results from Zalando, Volkswagen and Adidas
- Statistics Norway: Export figures for salmon in week 10
- British GDP figures
Thursday 14 March
- Norges Bank presents the year’s first report from the Regional Network
- New housing numbers for February
- Annual reports from DNB and Storebrand
- The International Energy Agency (IEA) presents its monthly oil report.
- Inflation figures from Sweden
- Electronics manufacturer Foxconn with results for the fourth quarter of 2023
Friday 15 March
- Final figures from the Technical Calculation Committee (TBU)
- Hub with report for sickness absence in 2023
- Statistics Norway: Trade balance in February
- Forecasts for the Norwegian and international economy up to 2027 from Statistics Norway
- French inflation figures
- US industrial figures
- Presidential elections in Russia – polling stations are open from 15 to 17 March
Sea view
American inflation
On Tuesday, fresh inflation figures based on the consumer price index (CPI) from the US will be presented.
– For the markets in general, the inflation figures from the US are the most important thing this week, says Haugland.
In advance, it is expected that inflation will remain at 3.1 per cent, while core inflation is expected to land at 3.7 per cent, according to Bloomberg.
Kjersti Haugland in DNB Markets points to the month of June as the first likely opportunity for interest rate cuts in both the US and the eurozone. Photo: Siv Dolmen
In January, price growth in the country was 3.1 per cent, compared to the same month last year. Core inflation came in at 3.9 per cent, unchanged from the previous month. The US central bank’s (Fed) preferred measure of price growth, the PCE price indexPCE price indexThe PCE price index (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) measures inflation across a wide range of goods and services, and also reflects changes in consumer behaviour. , came in at 2.4 percent in January.
DNB Markets expects that core inflation will moderate to 3.7 per cent in February.
– In addition, there will also be producer prices from the USA this week, which have recently been decisive for the market, says the chief economist.
– Could be the final straw
Kjersti Haugland points out that the governors of both the European Central Bank (ESB) and the Federal Reserve have issued signals in the past week that they will cut interest rates in the near future, and that they believe that inflation is on the way down.
The ECB kept interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s rate meeting. At the same time, central bank governor Christine Lagarde hinted that the first interest rate cut could come in June.
Fed Jerome Powell said on Thursday that inflation in the US is not far from where it needs to be for the central bank to cut interest rates, writes CNBC.
– We received strong indications that the governors of the central bank have not changed their minds, and that it is ready for cuts before too long, says Haugland, and points to June as a clear time.
US central bank chief Jerome Powell has long been aware that the Fed wants to bring inflation down towards the two percent target. Photo: KENT NISHIMURA / AFP / NTB
That is why the upcoming inflation figures from the US will be important, she believes.
– If the decline is not realized, then it is clear that it will help to keep doubts alive. They will of course look at more data points, but that could be the last straw that sows doubts again, says the chief economist.
– It is also important for us here at home, considering what we can afford to do on the interest side, continues Haugland.
The Fed’s next interest rate meeting is 19–20 March.
Positive trends
Norges Bank presents the year’s first report from the Regional Network on Thursday.
Four times a year, the central bank interviews managers from over 400 companies and organizations about the economic development and future prospects. The results are published in reports four times a year, in March, June, September and December.
DNB Markets expects that the report will show a slightly more positive trend among companies. At the same time, they expect an increase of 0.2 per cent in the next quarter.
– We expect that things have gone a little better than expected in the first quarter, says Kjersti Haugland.
The chief economist says that we will probably not see strong reversals in either direction.
– In any case, it will not overturn Norges Bank’s image that the Norwegian economy is doing well, says Haugland.
New home sales, TBU and more inflation
The final report from the Technical Calculation Committee (TBU) will arrive on Friday. It preliminary report, which was published in February, showed that TBU shows a price increase of 4.1 per cent in 2024. TBU’s report presents analyzes and forecasts for the Norwegian economy, but also statistics for wage trends. It is used as the basis for the salary settlement.
The Association of Housing Manufacturers will come out with fresh figures on new home sales on Thursday. In January, new home sales increased by 12 per cent, while new starts fell by 17 per cent compared to the same month last year.
In addition to Norway and the USA, there will also be inflation figures from Sweden, Germany and France during the week.
Annual reports from a number of companies are presented, including DNB, Gyldendal and Storebrand.
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2024-03-10 21:06:48
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